BTC
$94,210.28
–
0.47%
ETH
$1,787.23
–
0.39%
USDT
$1.0004
–
0.01%
BNB
$602.53
–
0.64%
SOL
$148.58
–
4.29%
USDC
$0.9999
–
0.02%
DOGE
$0.1816
–
0.94%
ADA
$0.7078
–
2.00%
TRX
$0.2517
+
3.27%
SUI
$3.4315
–
7.74%
LINK
$14.78
–
2.45%
AVAX
$21.95
–
2.82%
XLM
$0.2888
+
1.53%
LEO
$9.0900
–
2.52%
SHIB
$0.0₄1422
+
0.51%
TON
$3.2231
–
0.36%
HBAR
$0.1909
–
3.44%
BCH
$359.40
–
5.32%
LTC
$85.97
+
0.03%
By James Van Straten|Edited by Sheldon Reback
Updated Apr 25, 2025, 12:33 p.m. Published Apr 25, 2025, 8:50 a.m.
- ARK Invest’s revised 2030 bitcoin price target sees a range from $500,000 to $2.4 million, driven by assumptions on active supply and institutional adoption.
- BTC’s recent rally to $93,000 is supported by declining exchange balances, with Glassnode showing a drop from 3 million BTC in November to 2.6 million BTC.
ARK Invest raised its decade-end bitcoin (BTC) price target to as high as $2.4 million apiece after revising its assumptions on active supply, which excludes lost or long-held coins. The largest cryptocurrency by market value was recently trading around $94,000.
The bull-projection figure, 60% more than its January 2024 estimate, reflects a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from last December through the end of 2030. The base case estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million — a 53% CAGR — while the bear case projects $500,000, equating to a 32% CAGR.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
David Puell, an analyst at the Cathie Wood-led investment company, used a model based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across several sectors. These include institutional investment, bitcoin’s role as “digital gold,” its use as a haven in emerging markets, adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings and on-chain financial services built on the bitcoin network.
In November last year, Puell targeted $104,000-$124,000 by year-end. Bitcoin ended December at $93,440 en route to hitting a record high of $109,000 in January before slumping to lows around $74,500 earlier this month.
The rally since then is partly driven by declining exchange balances, which indicate that more BTC is being withdrawn into private wallets, a sign of long-term holding behavior. According to Glassnode data, exchange-held BTC has fallen from approximately 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million, reinforcing the growing bullish sentiment around the cryptocurrency.
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
