Arthur Hayes says Monad’s token structure makes it vulnerable to a brutal selloff, while predicting money printing will fuel the next major crypto rally.
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Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption.
Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for , which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.
According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case.
Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He named Bitcoin (), Ether (), Solana () and Zcash () as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle.
Last year, Monad from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by .
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Hayes remains bullish
Hayes also laid out a bullish outlook for crypto as a whole, driven almost entirely by renewed monetary expansion. He argued that governments, particularly the United States, are preparing for another wave of liquidity injections ahead of political campaigns and slowing growth.
“I think that we are at the end of the beginning of this cycle and the massive amounts of crazy bull market money printing is ahead of us,” he said.
He also dismissed the widely cited four-year Bitcoin cycle, saying past market booms were fueled not by halvings but by global credit expansion led by the US and China. When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin reacts first, he said, calling it the “last free-market smoke alarm” for the global financial system.
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Privacy coins to dominate
Looking ahead, Hayes predicted privacy technologies will dominate the next crypto narrative, with zero-knowledge systems and privacy coins seeing renewed interest. He added that institutional adoption is likely to settle on Ethereum, especially through stablecoins and tokenized finance.
Earlier this month, he revealed that Zcash has in his family office Maelstrom, trailing only Bitcoin.
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