Biden’s Odds of Dropping Out Surge to Almost 80% on Polymarket After New York Times Report

A New York Times report that President Joe Biden is weighing his future in the 2024 race prompted traders on Polymarket to boost the odds the Democrat will drop out nearly 80% on Wednesday.

That’s up from 55% earlier. The wild upswing caps a week of mayhem in Polymarket’s “Biden drops out of presidential race?” market, which has garnered nearly $10 million in bets. Before last week’s debate with Donald Trump, the same question gave 20% odds.

Plenty of Washington talking heads have talked down Biden’s ability to prevail in the 2024 election against Trump after a faltering debate performance put a spotlight on his age. But The New York Times is now reporting that Biden thinks he has a short and slimming window to salvage his prospects.

“He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place,” the New York Times quoted an unnamed ally as saying about Biden.

A White House spokesperson said on X that the New York Times story is false.

UPDATE (July 3, 2024, 15:30 UTC): Adds White House spokesperson saying The New York Times story is false.