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By James Van Straten|Edited by Omkar Godbole
Jun 2, 2025, 10:59 a.m.
- Bitcoin’s recent price action is more correlated with Japan’s 30-year bond yields than with traditional risk assets like the Nasdaq, suggesting a new behavioral anchor, according to one macro analyst.
- Surging JGB yields appear to be influencing U.S. Treasury yields, implying that Japan, not Washington, could be shaping U.S. rate policy and cross-asset market dynamics.
Weston Nakamura founder of Across The Spread, a global markets analyst known for his macro insights through an Asia lens, highlights a surprising and increasingly critical macro relationship.
According to Nakamura, Bitcoin
appears to be tracking long-end Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields specifically the 30-year more closely than its traditional correlation with U.S. equities like the Nasdaq 100.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
As BTC’s price diverges from risk assets, its movements have begun aligning with surging JGB yields, both reaching record highs in recent months.
Nakamura notes key moments in 2024 such as the launch of U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs and Trump’s re-election where BTC experienced brief, narrative-driven price bursts, only to eventually revert to a path consistent with long-end JGB yield movements.
He argues this alignment is not simply a second-order effect of U.S. Treasury (UST) yields but a direct consequence of Japan’s unique market dynamics. Reinforcing this view, Nakamura references a recent clip of U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent, who asserts that UST yields are not being driven by domestic political dysfunction, but by global forces explicitly citing Japan.
This raises the provocative idea that if U.S. policy is being shaped around the 10Y Treasury yield, and that yield is in turn being influenced by Japanese bond markets, then Japan may be indirectly guiding U.S. macro policy.
Nakamura suggests JGBs are now at the center of the global financial system, influencing everything from crypto to equities, FX, and gold. In the meantime, he urges investors regardless of asset class to watch Japan closely, as its long-overlooked bond market could be exerting outsized influence on cross-asset behavior worldwide.
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin and Strategy (MSTR).
