Bitcoin bull cycle enters ‘late phase’ as profit-taking metrics spike

Key takeaways:

• Glassnode data flags Bitcoin’s profit-taking metrics as a late bull market cycle signal.

• Bitcoin capital inflows have weakened, and large profit-taking has peaked since BTC hit $124,000, but a new all-time high could arrive in two to three months.

• New and short-term holders are accumulating, offsetting the sell pressure.

Bitcoin () has entered a “historically late phase” of its market cycle, with profit-taking metrics and capital flows echoing signs from previous cycle tops, according to analytics platform Glassnode.

Data indicated that Bitcoin’s current cycle shared similarities with the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 runs, where all-time highs (ATHs) were reached roughly two to three months after the present relative stage.

The firm noted that Bitcoin’s circulating supply has spent 273 consecutive days above the +1 standard deviation profit band, second only to the 335-day streak seen during the 2015–2018 cycle. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTHs) have already realized more profits than in all but one past cycle, signaling that sell-side pressure is mounting.

“These signals reinforce the view that the current cycle is firmly in its historically late phase,” Glassnode in its weekly report, while also pointing out that in past cycles, such conditions often preceded new all-time highs within months.

Bitcoin has slipped nearly 9% since hitting $124,000, with weaker capital inflows accompanying the decline. BTC realized cap’s growth peaked at just 6% per month in recent weeks, compared to 13% during the $100,000 breakout in late 2024.

Profit-taking volumes have also softened. Glassnode observed that the most recent ATH attempt saw realized profit-taking fall well below the spikes seen at $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Despite this, realized losses remain moderate at $112 million per day, well within historical norms for local corrections.

Bitcoin demand is evident, but new highs are elusive

Despite profit-taking pressures, CryptoQuant data renewed demand. The youngest cohort of Bitcoin holders (wallets under one month old) flipped net positive, with supply held by this group surging by 73,702 BTC in September.

Short-term holders (STHs) are also adding aggressively, accumulating 159,098 BTC. This new capital was absorbing coins distributed by long-term holders (LTHs), a dynamic often seen in sustained bull markets.

However, onchain insights from Santiment against expecting an immediate rebound. Retail traders’ eagerness to “buy the dip” has historically preceded further downside, while short positions remain insufficient to fuel a major short squeeze.

Market sentiment has turned more negative since Bitcoin fell below $114,000, but analysts note fear levels have not yet reached capitulation.

At the same time, whales continue accumulating, with wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, adding over 56,000 coins since late August. Exchange balances also dropped by more than 31,000 BTC in the past month, reducing near-term selling pressure.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.