Bitcoin ETFs are the market’s “clearest sentiment barometer,” indicating an incoming breakout for “Uptober,” analysts told Cointelegraph.
News
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) began the historically bullish month of October with their second-best week of inflows since launch, signaling renewed investor optimism.
Spot Bitcoin () ETFs recorded $3.24 billion worth of cumulative net over the past week, nearly matching their record of $3.38 billion in the week ending Nov. 22, 2024, to data from SoSoValue.
The figure marks a sharp rebound from the previous week’s $902 million in outflows. Analysts attributed the turnaround to growing expectations of another US interest rate cut, which has improved sentiment toward risk assets.
Growing expectations of another US interest rate cut triggered a “shift in sentiment,” attracting renewed investor demand for Bitcoin ETFs, “bringing four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph. “At current run-rates, Q4 flows could retire over 100,000 BTC from circulation — more than double new issuance.“
“ETF absorption is accelerating while long-term holder distribution eases, helping BTC build a stronger base,” near key technical support levels, he added.
Related:
Continued ETF inflows may provide significant tailwinds for Bitcoin in October, which is the second-best month for Bitcoin in terms of average historical returns, often referred to as “Uptober” by crypto investors.
This week’s $3.2 billion briefly pushed Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, marking an over six-week high last seen on Aug. 14 for the world’s first cryptocurrency, data shows.
Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000 may invite a “very quick move” above the before the end of 2025, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, told Cointelegraph during an interview at Token2049 in Singapore.
Related:
Bitcoin ETFs now serve as the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the cryptocurrency industry, indicating a potential breakout for October, Kalchev said.
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early-Q4 breakout in the crypto market, powered by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions.”
However, Bitcoin’s momentum will depend on several key events next week, including US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, as well as the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors are also looking forward to the delayed US jobs report, but its publication date depends on the length of the current , the first such instance since 2018.
Meanwhile, investors are expecting a strong month for Bitcoin’s momentum, as October is the second-best month in terms of Bitcoin’s historical performance.
BTC averaged monthly returns of around 20% in October, 46% in November and around 4% in December, according to CoinGlass .
Magazine:
