Bitcoin Faces Risk From ‘Maxed Out’ U.S. Consumers, Analyst Says

Although the unwinding of the yen carry trade has likely paused since Monday, stabilizing risk assets, including bitcoin (BTC). Still, other risks remain, such as the slower U.S. consumer borrowing, according to 10x Research’s founder Markus Thielen.

Total credit outstanding increased by $8.9 billion in June following an upwardly revised $13.9 billion in May, missing the consensus estimate of a $10 billion increase, data released by the Federal Reserve Wednesday showed.

Revolving debt, representing credit cards, which allow borrowers to access funds up to a specific limit and repay the loan over time, fell by $1.7 billion, the most since early 2021. Non-revolving debt, which includes student tuition and auto loans, rose $10.6 billion, the biggest increase in a year.

Perhaps more concerning is the increasing delinquency rates, a sign of deteriorating household balance sheets. In the June quarter, the share of credit card delinquents or those running late on repayments for more than 90 days, was 10.93%, the highest since the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, auto-loan delinquencies hit 4.43%, the highest since 2021.

It’s a sign U.S. consumers have maxed out on their borrowing capacity and present a challenge to bullish crypto narratives, according to Thielen.

“Weak U.S. consumer credit data, which dropped from $11.3 billion to $8.9 billion (below the expected $10 billion), mainly due to rare negative credit card debt and soaring delinquencies, signals a collapsing personal savings rate. This is significant for crypto as it suggests the fiat-to-crypto onramp will remain constrained due to maxed-out U.S. consumers,” Thielen said in a note to clients.

Thielen also cited the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, the slowing U.S. economy, and dwindling AI hype as risks to the crypto market. Both bitcoin and Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for all things AI, bottomed out with the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022.

Shares in NVDA peaked in June near $140 and have since dropped to $98, according to charting platform TradingView. Bitcoin changed hands at $56,800 at press time, down 10% in seven days, according to CoinDesk data.