Bitcoin data forecast the drop to $98,000 as key supports failed to generate hefty buying from bulls, and futures traders saw their long positions liquidated.
Market Analysis
Bitcoin’s () price has struggled to regain momentum following Wednesday’s drop to $100,700, leaving BTC down roughly 3.5% on the weekly candle. Market data long-term holders have sold more than 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, intensifying the focus on lower liquidity pockets. Analysts now point to the June 2025 lows near $98,000 as the next likely target if volatility accelerates.
Key takeaways:
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Liquidity clusters show downside pressure building near $98,000 for Bitcoin.
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A fourth retest of $102,000 to $100,000 support signals a weakening structure.
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Futures trader positioning remains long-heavy despite rising technical risks.
BTC liquidity compression intensifies downside focus
Analysts tracking BTC’s liquidity map highlight a widening imbalance between support and overhead resistance. Crypto trader Daan that a “large cluster of liquidity sits below the local lows at $98,000–$100,000,” adding that this aligns with the series of marginally higher lows that have formed above the zone.
The trader also pointed to major upside levels at $108,000 and $112,000 but stressed that only the former is currently actionable given the market structure, with whichever band breaks first likely triggering a sharp squeeze.
Futures trader Byzantine General echoed the sentiment, observing that current price behavior suggests Bitcoin “is likely to sweep the lows around $98,000”.
Supporting this view, CoinGlass shows nearly $1.3 billion in cumulative long leveraged liquidity concentrated at the $98,000 level, a steep rise from earlier in the week, while futures traders had previously aimed for upside liquidity near $110,000, following the recent flush below $100,000 last Friday.
Repeated support retests deepen structural risk
Bitcoin has now tested the $102,000–$100,000 support band for the fourth time since the range was first established in May 2025. Multiple retests of the same support often indicate structural exhaustion: each subsequent visit weakens buyer conviction, reduces resting bid liquidity, and increases the likelihood of a breakdown.
Analyst UBCrypto that the latest move resembled a failed breakout, adding that it is “not a level worth buying into” until price confirms strength, even if that means re-entering a few percentage points higher.
Despite this, data from Hyblock Capital shows that long positioning remains dominant, with 68.9% of global BTC orders leaning long on Binance, indicating that many traders continue to trust the $100,000 floor.
However, both the daily and weekly charts reflect a softness at higher time frames, increasing the likelihood of a liquidity sweep toward $98,000, even as deeper order book support appears to be stacked above the current price.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
