Bitcoin Gains 5% to $61K Ahead of Fed, but Order Books Suggest Rally Could Be Capped

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $61,000 Tuesday during the early hours of the U.S session as cryptocurrencies rose ahead of tomorrow’s key Federal Reserve meeting, at which the central bank is universally expected to cut its benchmark fed funds rate for the first time in four years.

The largest and oldest cryptocurrency led the digital asset market higher, hitting its highest price since in three weeks at $61,330 before giving up some of the gains. It recently changed hands slightly below the $61,000 level, still up more than 5% over the past 24 hours.

The broad-market crypto benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index, meanwhile, advanced 3% to 1,880, as most altcoin majors including ether (ETH), solana (SOL), Ripple’s XRP (XRP), Cardano’s ADA (ADA) and Avalanche’s AVAX (AVAX) underperformed BTC with more modest 2%-4% gains.

Despite the rally, bitcoin continues to trade in a fairly tight range and seems unlikely to break out before Wednesday’s meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The BTC-USDT order book data on Binance, the most liquid trading pair on the largest spot crypto exchange by volume, shows significant sell orders between $61,000 and $62,500, pushing against the idea of a further price increase in the short term.

“Looking ahead, a lot of the focus will be around positioning into tomorrow’s highly anticipated Fed event risk,” said Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group in a Tuesday market update.

The market is still uncertain on whether the Fed will cut 25 basis points or opt for a larger 50 basis point move. A bit more than 24 hours prior to the central bank’s decision, investors have priced in a 63% probability for the more sizable cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“Investors are welcoming the prospect of a larger, more investor friendly Fed rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting, and yield differentials have moved out of the U.S. dollar’s favor as a consequence, added Kruger.

The dynamics are not necessarily that straightforward, as the prospect of larger cuts could cause a panicky reaction for risk asset prices, K33 Research analysts noted. “Similar large cuts occurred during the 2001 and 2007 recessions, often signaling heightened recession risks in the U.S,” K33 Research said in a Tuesday report.

However, those historical comparisons could be misleading, as real rates are at their peak with inflation coming down over the past months allowing a speedier pace of cuts, the report added. Market participants currently see the fed funds rate as 125 basis points lower by the end of the year.

“With inflation cooling and unemployment rising, the FED may opt for swift cuts to reach a neutral rate,” K33 analysts said.