Bitcoin Holds Above $58K as Odds of Big Fed Rate Cuts Jump to 67%

Bitcoin (BTC) and broader crypto markets have changed little in the past 24 hours as traders await a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, where officials are expected to announce their first rate cuts in four years.

Bitcoin is trading below $58,500 at $58,480 and is relatively flat. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), a measure of the largest digital assets, is up slightly, trading above 1,800.

Daily inflows into the bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) came in at $12.9 million, with most going to BlackRock’s IBIT.

The Fed is widely expected to announce an interest rate cut on Sept. 18, kicking off the so-called easing cycle, which has historically supported risk assets, including bitcoin.

As of Asian morning hours Tuesday, the 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices show traders see a 67% probability of big 50 bps rate cut to the 4.7%-5% range. This is a bump from Monday’s 50% implied probability and a large jump from the 25% probability from a month ago.

On Polymarket, traders are giving a 57% chance of a 50+ bps decrease and a 41% chance of a 25 bps decrease.

Elsewhere, the market remains fairly flat. Notable movers include XRP up 3.5%, SUI up 2.5%, and Fantom’s FTM, up 10.5% on continued positive market sentiment from its upcoming re-brand to Sonic.

On a livestream spanning over two hours, the team behind World Liberty Financial, a project endorsed by former President Donald Trump and his family, confirmed that it was launching a governance token – but only for accredited U.S. investors.

The team emphasized that the token is for governance participation, not economic gain, and did not share a specific launch date during their X Spaces stream.

During the livestream Trump did not mention the token itself or give an endorsement, but rather shared his general views on crypto policy, most of which was a repeat of what he shared during prior public appearances such as at the recent Bitcoin Conference in Nashville.

Crypto exchange Figure Markets is launching on the sidelines of Token2049 in Singapore. Figure, which was founded by SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, has a unique way of generating yield for those that keep their crypto on the exchange.

Figure says it will be able to offer returns of up to 8% for non-USD and stablecoin balances by leveraging a fund backed by real-world assets, such as home equity loans, according to a release.

Traders on the exchange deposit funds into Figure Markets, which are pooled and lent to Figure Technologies to issue secured home equity loans, a release explains. Borrowers pay interest on these loans, creating a spread that covers costs and provides returns to investors, who benefit from dual recourse protections, daily liquidity, and interest payments that accrue based on the length of their investment.

While Real World Assets (RWAs) are a growing part of crypto, there are very few applications in the industry that attempt to derive yield from them to finance their operations.

In 2023, before the launch of Figure, Cagney withdrew the company’s bid for a U.S. federal bank charter after regulatory scrutiny, opting to focus on partnerships with established banks instead.