Bitcoin may see ‘relief bounce’ as stabilization signs emerge: Analysts

Bitcoin could extend its recent rebound after posting an 8% daily gain on Wednesday, with crypto analysts pointing to signs that a local bottom may already be in.

“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” Bitfinex analysts in a report on Tuesday.

The comments came shortly before Bitcoin () rallied nearly 8% on Wednesday, briefly pushing toward $94,000. At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $91,440, to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin running on “leaner leverage base”

Bitfinex said that the market is now operating on a “leaner leverage base,” reducing the likelihood of a sudden, liquidation-driven market drawdown.

On Oct. 10, roughly $19 billion was wiped out of what many market participants described as an overleveraged market, triggering a broader sell-off that pushed Bitcoin and the wider crypto market into a downtrend, with Bitcoin’s price bottoming near $82,000 on Nov. 21.

“This configuration strengthens the case that the market’s remaining leverage is relatively well-contained, reducing systemic fragility and improving the prospects for a more stable consolidation phase,” he said.

The price pullback so late in the year, followed by a rebound, pushed more Bitcoin holders toward the idea that the four-year cycle is no longer relevant, which would have placed Bitcoin’s cycle price top around its October all-time highs of $125,100.

Bitcoin “is not like past cycles,” says analyst

It is still unclear how Bitcoin will finish the year, given December has historically been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with an average return of just 4.69% since December 2013, to CoinGlass. 

However, recent price action has not followed seasonal trends, with November falling 17.67% despite historically being Bitcoin’s strongest month on average, delivering returns of 41.12%.

Some still believe the move higher could extend into next year.

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Bitcoin analyst PlanC in an X post on Thursday, “This Bitcoin cycle is NOT like past cycles.”

“I have been warning you all and explaining this for well over a year now. Hopefully, you were paying attention,” PlanC said.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst Quinten Francois in an X post on the same day, “Bitcoin is closer to the bottom than to the top.”

BitMine chair Tom Lee recently said he is confident that Bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 before the end of the year.

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