Bitcoin rose above $117,000 as investors braced for Jerome Powell’s post-FOMC speech that could see volatile swings toward key BTC price levels.
Market Analysis
Key takeaways:
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Fed interest-rate cut odds for today are now 100%.
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BTC price may rise to all-time highs if key resistance level at $118,000 is broken.
Bitcoin () rose to a four-week high above $117,000 on Wednesday, as traders expect price swings before and after the US policy decision on interest rate cuts.
100% chance of interest rate cuts
There is a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Wednesday FOMC meeting, with a 4% probability of the rates being reduced by 50 bps, according to CME’s .
Polymarket bettors have also a 25 bps decrease at 93% for the FOMC meeting, with odds for a 50 bps reduction at 5%.
Related:
Odds from both the CME FedWatch and Polymarket are building for a three-cut path toward the end of the year.
Still, some market commentators say that any volatile price action from interest rate cuts is .
Traders have now turned their focus to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech after the FOMC meeting. Powell, who has been to lower interest rates, previously , saying the prevailing inflation and warranted adjustments.
Therefore, the market will keenly watch Powell’s language at the FOMC news conference to see if there is any shift in tone.
“Markets are locked on the FOMC Wednesday, with a 25 bps cut priced in,” private wealth manager Swissblock in a Tuesday post on X, adding that traders will be focusing on “Powell’s stance under the spotlight for hints.”
Swissblock managers also pointed out that either way, volatility is guaranteed, adding:
“Bitcoin’s Risk Index will guide whether BTC’s bullish structure holds or if a sell-off looms on the horizon.”
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said that on Wednesday before retracing after the FOMC decision is confirmed.
Where to next for BTC price?
Bitcoin must to continue its uptrend toward all-time highs and eventually into price discovery.
“Bitcoin keeps slowly grinding higher, now pushing into the 116.5K-118K resistance area,” crypto analyst Jelle in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“Break 118K and hold above it, and new all-time highs are next.”
Data from and shows BTC price “attacking” the resistance between $117,500 and $118,500, which is a great sign, according to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
“Quite usually it’s just a run before a drop.”
attacking the range resistance pre-FOMC could be a great sign.
Quite usually it’s just a run before a drop.
We’ll see.
It’s going to be fun!
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL)
Van de Poppe’s analysis suggested that if resistance around $118,000 is taken out, it could trigger a run-up move toward the $120,000 and later to the .
On the downside, a key area of interest lies between $116,800 and $114,500, a range the price has held between Sept. 10 and Tuesday.
Below that, the next move would be a retest of the $112,000 psychological level, which is also the 100-day simple moving average.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
