If Bitcoin deviates from its four-year cycle, it’ll see “dramatic” price action, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.
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Bitcoin is poised for unprecedented price discovery as long as it doesn’t peak within the next few days, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.
“It is reasonable to expect a bull market high any day now,” Brandt told Cointelegraph on Wednesday, citing Bitcoin’s () historical cycle pattern, which has played out in the three previous cycles.
“These cycles from low-to-halving-to-high have not always been the same length, but the post-halving distance of each has always been equal to the pre-halving distance,” Brandt said.
Sunday marked crucial day for Bitcoin’s cycle
Brandt explained that Bitcoin hit its current cycle low on Nov. 9, 2022, which was 533 days before the Bitcoin halving on April 20, 2024.
“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024, and bingo, it is this week,” he said. That date fell on Sunday, just one day before Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,100 on Monday.
However, Brandt emphasized, “there is always an ‘except,’” which could be significant for how Bitcoin’s price plays out. “Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic,” he said.
Brandt noted that while market cycles don’t always repeat in the same way, Bitcoin has followed them consistently so far.
“Sooner or later, cycles change. But betting against a cycle that has a perfect three-for-three record should not be done with reckless abandon,” he said.
Brandt said he is 50/50 on the outcome. “I will remain bullish, hopeful for counter-cyclicality. In this case, a move well beyond $150,000 would be my expectation, perhaps as high as $185,000,” Brandt said.
Bitcoin four-year cycle debate continues
It comes as the debate continues over whether crypto’s four-year cycle remains relevant, given the onset of institutional adoption, ETF products and corporate digital asset treasuries.
In July, crypto analyst Rekt Capital similarly said that if the pattern, the market will likely peak in October.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt said on July 3.
Some argue that even if Bitcoin doesn’t follow the four-year cycle exactly, it will still exhibit some kind of pattern.
Gemini’s head of APAC region, Saad Ahmed, that “it ultimately stems” from people getting excited and overextending themselves, and “then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium.”
Related:
Several analysts expect Bitcoin to post significant gains before the end of the year. Economist Timothy Peterson told Cointelegraph on Tuesday that there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin ends the month above $140,000, based on from the past decade.
Looking further ahead, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s director of market research, Joe Burnett, have both tipped Bitcoin to reach as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
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