Bitcoin is down nearly 17% this month and is tracking toward its worst November since at least 2019, but LVRG’s Nick Ruck says that sets it up for a good 2026.
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Bitcoin is likely to close November at its worst loss since at least 2019, but analysts say it sets the cryptocurrency up for a good start to 2026 as some investors could buy back in.
“While November will be printing in the red for crypto, the capitulation signals an opportunity for smart investors to start buying back in,” LVRG research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph.
“Overleveraged participants and unsustainable projects have been largely cleared out, which gives way for new long-term holders to scale in ahead of a promising new year.”
Bitcoin () is down nearly 16.9% so far this month as it trades around $91,500, nearing losses from November 2019, when it lost almost 17.3% over the month, to CoinGlass.
Its to date was in 2018, when Bitcoin dumped 36.5% during the brutal bear market that followed the 2017 peak, but it last finished the month of November , shaving 16.2%.
Long-term Bitcoin bullishness remains
“Normally, November is one of Bitcoin’s strongest months,” crypto educator Sumit Kapoor on Wednesday, but with just a few days left and a slow Thanksgiving weekend coming, “it’s on track to be the worst November since 2018.”
“Every time Bitcoin has had a red November, December has also ended red.”
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at private markets advisory firm Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that most crypto-native investors “are used to a somewhat predictable four-year cycle and, in the past, that’s led to rallies going into year-end, with October, November and often December finishing in the green.”
He said the cycle was triggered early by the launches of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US in early 2024.
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“I see this as positive, though: it hints at the ever so dangerous ‘this time is different’ as institutions finally came in a meaningful way, changing the pace, breadth and timing of crypto price action,” he said.
Monthly candle likely to hold above $93,000
Technical analysts have eyed Bitcoin closing at a monthly candle of $93,000, predicting another downside if it fails to sustain its momentum over the weekend.
“With the monthly close approaching – I’ve highlighted the two most relevant levels to watch at the close for this time frame – $93,401 and $102,437,” analyst “CrediBull Crypto” on X.
They said a close above $93,000 “would be a positive sign” that is likely to happen, while a close above $102,000 “would be incredibly bullish, but I think we may need to wait until next month for that one.”
BTC was changing hands for $91,600 at the time of writing, having traded flat over the last 24 hours and failing to break resistance just below $92,000 on Thursday.
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