An economist said Bitcoin declining more than 5% in October is “exceedingly rare,” and historically, the asset has usually rebounded within the following week.
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Bitcoin’s price may recover up to 21% over the coming seven days if October’s historical trends hold, an economist suggests.
“Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has happened only 4 times in the past 10 years,” economist Timothy Peterson in an X post on Friday.’
He said those instances occurred in October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. In the week following each drop, Bitcoin () rebounded by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019. The only exception was 2021, when the crypto asset fell a further 3%.
October is often dubbed “Uptober” for its historically strong returns.
Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average, delivering an average return of 20.10%, trailing only November, which has had an average gain of 46.02%, to data from CoinGlass.
If history repeats, Bitcoin may skyrocket to $124,000
Peterson’s comments came after Bitcoin on Friday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on China.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin has already slightly recovered to $112,468, after only reaching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Monday, to CoinMarketCap.
If history repeats and Bitcoin mirrors its strongest October rebound — the 21% surge in 2019 — a similar move from Friday’s low of $102,000 would place the cryptocurrency just below its latest all-time high, around $124,000, within a week.
Bitcoiners emphasize that it is still early in October
Several other Bitcoin advocates remain confident that the uptrend will continue.
In an X post on Friday, Jan3 founder Samson Mow , “There are still 21 days left in Uptober.” MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe , “This is the bottom of the current cycle.”
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“The biggest liquidation crash in history. COVID-19 was the bottom of the previous cycle,” he said.
Some analysts took a longer-term view. The Bitcoin Libertarian , “In a few years, Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a few hours, and we’ll all be talking about a new record high amount of liquidations.”
“Let history repeat,” he said.
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