Analysts say Bitcoin is nearly in its “max pain” zone as the cost basis of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s massive BTC treasury draws near.
Market Analysis
Key takeaways:
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A Bitwise analyst outlined the $84,000 to $73,000 region as the likely “max pain” capitulation range for Bitcoin.
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Cost-basis levels of BlackRock’s IBIT and Strategy’s BTC treasury could heavily influence liquidity flows.
The worst-case scenario for BTC is a “fire-sale” level
Bitwise European head of research André Dragosch Bitcoin’s “max pain” zone resides between two critical cost-basis levels: BlackRock’s IBIT at $84,000 and MicroStrategy’s near $73,000.
Dragosch argued that a final cycle bottom is most likely to form somewhere between these levels, describing them as “fire-sale” prices that represent a full reset of market positioning.
The cost basis of IBIT, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), reflected the average price at which the ETF acquired its BTC holdings. When the price approaches this threshold, sentiment often deteriorates because ETF holders begin to evaluate whether continued drawdowns justify redemptions.
This dynamic is already visible as IBIT posted its worst single-day outflows of on Tuesday, contributing to $3.3 billion in total ETF outflows over the past month, or 3.5% of total assets under management (AUM).
Strategy is currently at a more fragile point. Its net asset value (NAV) recently fell below 1, signaling that the market now values the company’s equity at a discount to the underlying Bitcoin it holds, historically a sign of tightening liquidity and risk aversion. A retest of its $73,000 cost basis could further stress sentiment and trigger heavier de-risking if macroeconomic conditions worsen.
Macroeconomic risk builds as the Fed wavers on December rate cuts
Data from CryptoQuant that the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is unusually uncertain after a government shutdown delayed key labor data, leaving the Fed with limited visibility. Rate-cut expectations have on Thursday, and minutes show a divided committee balancing persistent 3% inflation with the risks of premature easing.
If the Fed opts not to cut, liquidity could remain restricted, the same environment that triggered Bitcoin’s sharp sell-off earlier in November.
Still, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have reached a record $72 billion, matching the accumulation pattern that preceded every major Bitcoin rally in 2025. Under a no-cut scenario, analysts expect BTC to trade from $60,000 to $80,000 into year-end as liquidity stays sidelined until macroeconomic clarity improves.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
