So close yet so far – that’s the story for bitcoin (BTC) this Friday morning, as its price rally has stalled just shy of record highs amidst a continued rally in gold (XAU), traditional risk assets, and crypto tokens associated with them.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, changed hands near $104,400 at press time. Bitcoin prices are just 4.7% short of setting a new lifetime high, according to CoinDesk data.
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President Trump’s reiteration of the tariffs threat looks to have clipped BTC’s wings. While some fear an extended sell-off before the next big bullish wave unfolds, action in the onchain derivatives market suggests otherwise.
“While some crypto leaders are betting on BTC to fall before rallying towards $250K later this year, the Derive.xyz market remains skeptical. In fact, there’s a 9.7% chance of BTC falling below $75K before March and an even less likely 4.4% chance that it will swing over $250K before September 26,” Nick Forster, founder at the leading decentralized onchain options AI-powered platform Derive.xyz, told CoinDesk.
Flows on Deribit and the CME remain bullish as momentum looks to be building for state-level BTC reserves in the U.S. That said, gold, a traditional safe haven, and tokens tied to gold are on the rise, and the latest uptick in Tokyo inflation supports the bullish case in the anti-risk yen.
Gold rose to a record high of $2,799 per ounce early Friday, taking the month-to-date gain to 6.5%. The lifetime high comes as participants in the London bullion market rush to borrow the yellow metal from central banks, motivated by reports of heightened gold deliveries to the U.S. The flurry of activity is reportedly driven by worries over possible import tariffs, according to Reuters.
According to Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund’s Founder, Jeroen Blokland, gold’s rally to record highs against major fiat currencies hints at currency debasement. The intentional devaluation of paper money could also source demand for alternative investments like cryptocurrencies.
Gold-backed tokens are already drawing strength from the XAU price rise, although they continue to trade at a discount to the yellow metal. Tether gold (XAUT) rose to its lifetime high of $2,796 on Bitfinex early today, TradingView data show. Meanwhile, PAXG also teased a move to record highs above $2,800.
Consumer inflation in Tokyo, which tends to lead nationwide trends, sped up slightly in January, government data showed. Notably, the core figure, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, rose 2.5% in January from a year earlier, compared with the 2.4% increase seen in December.
The fastest annual increase is conducive to more Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes and yen strength. Last week, the central bank raised the policy rate to 0.5%, the highest in over 16 years.
A potential surge in the yen could destabilize riskier assets, as seen in August of last year. AUD/JPY, the FX market’s risk barometer, has dived out of a consolidation pattern, hinting at more losses and broad-based risk-off ahead.
