Bitcoin retesting $100,000 would match previous BTC price dips since the end of 2024, Fibonacci retracement analysis shows.
Market Update
Key points:
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Bitcoin sees a modest rebound into the weekly candle close, but traders see key resistance overhead.
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BTC price action risks a much deeper drop if bulls fail to reclaim that resistance zone.
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Fibonacci analysis hints that such a drop may not pass more than 10%.
Bitcoin () returned above $111,000 into Sunday’s weekly close as analysis saw “promising” recovery signs.
BTC price “logical” bounce zone near $100,000
Data from and showed BTC/USD gaining about 1% on the day to hit local highs of $111,369.
The pair’s latest dip, which , saw bulls preserve $110,000 support.
“This is actually promising on $BTC,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on X.
“It makes a new higher low and holds the support at $110K. Would be great if we crack $112K and fire up the bull run.”
Market participants continued to hold diverging views over short-term BTC price action. Popular trader Cipher X suggested that $112,000 could spark new lows should bulls fail to reclaim it next.
holds around $111K, but structure hints at a possible dip
If momentum stalls below $112K, I expect a pullback toward $108K support
Nothing major is happening across the market right now – it’s the weekend so best to stay patient and relaxed.
— Cipher X (@Cipher2X)
“We either flip $113,000 and pump to new highs, or if we reject here we drop to $100,000,” fellow trader Crypto Tony on the day, adopting a more categorical perspective based on the weekly chart.
Trader TurboBullCapital referenced the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $115,035 and $101,760, respectively, as important levels to watch going forward.
“Lose the $107k area & the downside target becomes the $101k level which also happens to coincide with the MA200,” part of an X post .
“This is a logical area to expect a bounce.”
Bitcoin’s “worst case scenario” coincides with $100,000
As , one theory on longer timeframes involves market makers on exchange order books.
Related:
Short sellers and bears, it suggests, could be the victims of manipulation prior to a giant short squeeze event taking the market to new all-time highs. This would echo price action in late 2024.
In the meantime, Fibonacci retracement levels imply a maximum drop of 10%, again based on historical behavior since the end of last year.
“$BTC usually bottoms at 0.382 Fibonacci level. This happened in Q3 2024, Q2 2025 and will probably happen again,” popular trader ZYN .
“For anyone wondering how low we can go, 0.382 Fibonacci level is currently around $100K. So the worst case scenario is a 10% drop before a 50% rally above $150,000.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
