VanEck analysts said Bitcoin could handle 5–10% of global trade and make up 2.5% of central bank reserves by 2050, driving its strategic role as a monetary hedge.
Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 once it becomes a settlement currency for international and domestic trade and makes its way into more central bank reserves, analysts at asset manager VanEck predict.
The $2.9 million price target assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate and Bitcoin () settling 5-10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, to VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush.
Global liquidity expansion and monetary debasement would be the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price rise, they said in a note on Thursday: “Bitcoin is not a tactical trade in this framework; it functions as a long-duration hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes.”
“While short-term price action remains a function of global liquidity cycles and leverage, the long-term value accrual will be driven by Bitcoin’s convergence with the structural deficiencies of the sovereign debt system.”
Sigel and Bush estimated that central banks could hold 2.5% of their assets in Bitcoin, while a $2.9 million price would imply that Bitcoin represents 1.66% of the world’s financial assets.
The $2.9 million price point was VanEck’s base case, while a bear scenario sees a 2% CAGR to $130,000 and a bull scenario a 20% CAGR to $52.4 million.
Bitcoin is already being particularly in Iran and Russia, but has seen little adoption among G7 countries.
from SWIFT, the largest international payments network, shows accounted for 47.8% of international trade as of September 2025, followed by the euro and British pound at 22.8% and 7.4%, respectively.
The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan round out the top five at 3.7% and 3.2%.
If Bitcoin were to claim a 5-10% share under VanEck’s model, it would be about as widely used as the British pound is today for international trade settlement.
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The 15% CAGR that VanEck assumes is a fall from the in December 2024, when it estimated that a US Bitcoin reserve of 1 million coins could by 35% by 2049.
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