Grayscale’s 2026 outlook cites institutional demand and clearer US regulation as key catalysts for Bitcoin’s surge in the first half of 2026.
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Grayscale analysts are tipping a crypto market resurgence, with demand surging enough to drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high within the first half of 2026.
The asset manager made the prediction as part of a 2026 outlook report on Monday, which also explored ten key investing themes for the year.
Commenting on Bitcoin (), Grayscale said the price will skyrocket in H1 2026, on the back of increased macro demand for alternative value stores and improved regulatory clarity in the US.
The firm argued that this will also coincide with the end of the supposed Bitcoin :
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern. Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year, in our view.”
In terms of the macro, the asset manager argues that fiat currencies are facing rising debasement risks due to “rising public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time.”
“As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue rising as well, in our view,” the company said.
Regulation is paving the way for more growth
Commenting on the regulatory climate, Grayscale said there has been a sharp change in tune in the US over the past couple of years.
The firm pointed to a number of against crypto firms, the approval of spot-Bitcoin ETFs paving the way for to hit the market, and the passing of the GENIUS Act.
“In 2024, Bitcoin and Ether spot ETPs came to market. In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act on stablecoins and regulators shifted their approach toward crypto, working with the industry to provide clear guidance while continuing to focus on consumer protection and financial stability,” Grayscale said, adding:
“In 2026, Grayscale expects Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation, which will likely cement blockchain-based finance in U.S. capital markets and facilitate continued institutional investment.”
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Grayscale tips top 10 themes of 2026
Grayscale’s report also offered its take on the top ten investing themes of 2026, “reflecting the breadth of use cases emerging across public blockchain technology.”
The list includes major themes such as: Stablecoin market growth due to the GENIUS Act, asset tokenization hitting an inflection point, major DeFi growth led by lending markets and investors seeking out staking “by default.”
“In 2026 we expect to see the practical results: stablecoins integrated into cross-border payment services, stablecoins as collateral on derivatives exchanges, stablecoins on corporate balance sheets, and stablecoins as an alternative to credit cards in online consumer payments,” Grayscale said.
Meanwhile, Grayscale has also tipped two narratives that won’t likely sway the crypto market next year: Quantum computing and digital asset treasuries (DATs).
“We believe that research and preparedness will continue on post-quantum cryptography, but this issue is unlikely to affect valuations in the next year,” Grayscale said, adding: “Despite their media attention, we believe that DATs will not be a major swing factor for digital asset markets in 2026.
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