Multiple factors, including ETF outflows, contracting demand, and price falling below key support levels, indicate the start of a BTC bear market.
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Bitcoin () demand growth has slowed significantly since October 2025, signaling that Bitcoin has entered into another bear market cycle, according to analysts at crypto market analysis platform CryptoQuant.
Investor demand for BTC came in three waves during the current market cycle, with the first wave landing in January 2024, CryptoQuant analysts .
The first wave followed the (ETFs) in the US, the second wave followed the , and the third was a BTC treasury company bubble. According to CryptoQuant:
“Demand growth has fallen below trend since early October 2025. This indicates that the bulk of this cycle’s incremental demand has already been realized, removing a key pillar of price support.”
Institutional demand has also contracted, with the total amount of declining by about 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, a “sharp contrast” to the accumulation behavior seen in Q4 2024, CryptoQuant said.
Funding rates, the fees paid by perpetual futures traders to maintain their positions, have also declined to their lowest levels since December 2023, another signal that BTC has entered a bear market.
The final reason given by the analysts for the bearish outlook was Bitcoin’s price structure breaking down , which is a critical and dynamic support level for any asset.
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Some analysts continue to higher BTC prices in 2026, driven by increased demand and lower interest rates. Falling interest rates are and other risk assets.
However, overall crypto market sentiment remains firmly in “fear” territory, according to CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed .
Only 22.1% of investors expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates at its next meeting in January, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch .
US President Donald Trump attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to by threatening to fire Powell.
Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026, and Trump is who are to cut rates.
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