BTC
$88,646.45
+
7.04%
ETH
$2,192.69
+
5.83%
USDT
$1.0003
+
0.05%
XRP
$2.4570
+
1.86%
BNB
$592.33
+
3.93%
SOL
$141.62
+
2.18%
USDC
$1.0003
–
0.01%
ADA
$0.9465
+
10.78%
DOGE
$0.2003
+
3.76%
TRX
$0.2435
+
2.86%
WBTC
$88,541.99
+
7.07%
HBAR
$0.2470
+
5.52%
LINK
$15.77
+
14.10%
LEO
$9.9167
–
0.19%
XLM
$0.2982
+
4.52%
AVAX
$20.38
+
2.39%
SUI
$2.4948
+
4.45%
SHIB
$0.0₄1313
+
2.82%
BCH
$389.78
+
28.09%
LTC
$101.71
+
1.92%
By Francisco Rodrigues, James Van Straten|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Mar 5, 2025, 3:37 p.m. UTC
What to know:
- February saw bitcoin losing its risk-adjusted returns edge versus other assets.
- Over a 12-month span, bitcoin’s total returns are roughly in line with those of gold. In risk-adjusted performance, Bitcoin is now closer to stock indices.
- Year-to-date, the precious metal has been outperforming.
Bitcoin’s struggles in February saw its risk-adjusted returns weakening significantly according to data from research service Ecoinometrics.
While over the past year, bitcoin’s total returns have matched those of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, when adjusting for risk, bitcoin is behaving more like a major stock index.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Risk-adjusted returns measure an asset’s profitability relative to its price swings. A higher ratio suggests strong returns with lower volatility.
After a number of violent price swings of late alongside trade war threats, growing geopolitical tensions and President Trump’s sowing confusion over government plans with respect to crypto, bitcoin is modestly lower so far in 2025. Gold, meanwhile, is up more than 11% year-to-date.
“Bitcoin and gold are completely uncorrelated at the moment, on a 20-day moving average on a five year time frame it is negative,” said CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten. “You can typically see when the correlation goes negative this is usually when bitcoin is at a bottom which can be seen in early 2023, summer of 2023, summer of 2024 and now. BTC tends to catch up with gold.”
The shift could impact Bitcoin’s appeal to institutional investors, who often prioritize assets with favorable risk-reward profiles. While Bitcoin’s long-term narrative as “digital gold” remains intact, its short-term performance suggests it may be behaving more like equities than a safe-haven asset.
Francisco is a reporter for CoinDesk with a passion for cryptocurrencies and personal finance. Before joining CoinDesk he worked at major financial and crypto publications. He owns bitcoin, ether, solana, and PAXG above CoinDesk’s $1,000 disclosure threshold.
James Van Straten is a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, specializing in Bitcoin and its interplay with the macroeconomic environment. Previously, James worked as a Research Analyst at Saidler & Co., a Swiss hedge fund, where he developed expertise in on-chain analytics. His work focuses on monitoring flows to analyze Bitcoin’s role within the broader financial system.
In addition to his professional endeavors, James serves as an advisor to Coinsilium, a UK publicly traded company, where he provides guidance on their Bitcoin treasury strategy. He also holds investments in Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
