US Bitcoin ETFs are nearing $3 billion in November outflows as a fresh death cross, fading Fed rate cut odds, and smart money shorts weigh on sentiment.
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Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are closing in on $3 billion in net outflows for November, putting the products on track for their worst month yet after BlackRock’s fund logged its biggest day of redemptions on record.
US spot Bitcoin () ETFs extended their five-day losing streak Tuesday, logging another $372 million in net negative outflows, to Farside Investors.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF recorded $523 million in outflows, marking its largest day of outflows since its debut in January 2024.
The latest outflows bring November’s total to $2.96 billion, already making it the second-worst month for spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock alone accounted for $2.1 billion of those outflows.
Another week of selling could push redemptions past the $3.56 billion seen in February, which would mark the weakest month for ETF flows despite the historical tendency for November to be one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were the primary driver of Bitcoin’s , Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told Cointelegraph recently.
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The ETF outflows have continued to mount despite investors expecting a month of upside for Bitcoin, based on historical data. November is the best month for Bitcoin’s historic returns, with BTC averaging a 41.22% rally during the month, to CoinGlass data.
Looking at other crypto funds, the Ether () ETFs recorded $74.2 million in outflows on Tuesday, while the Solana () ETFs attracted $26.2 million in inflows, surpassing $421 million in total investments since launch, according to Farside Investors.
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cycle’s fourth “death cross” last week, a technical chart pattern that emerges when an asset’s short-term price momentum indicators fall below the long-term trend.
While it is historically considered a “bearish technical signal,” the death cross can also signal a macro bottom ahead of a strong reversal, depending on the wider economic context,Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.
“This time, the signal comes at a moment when liquidity is only starting to stabilize, December rate-cut odds have fallen from near-certainty to ~50%, and market risks remain unresolved […]”
Some of the crypto-specific concerns included a warning from Bitmine Immersion’s chairman, Tom Lee, who stated that two major market makers are facing financial deficits, explained the analyst.
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in a 46% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut during the Federal Reserve meeting on Dec. 10, down from 93.7% a month ago, to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The development inspired a repositioning among the industry’s most successful traders, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, for a more short-term downside.
Smart money traders have added $5.7 million worth of cumulative short positions in the past 24 hours, signaling downside expectations, as this cohort was net short on Bitcoin for $275 million, according to .
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