Bitcoin surfs volatility catalysts as key US macro data combines with increasing worries over a BTC price capitulation event.
Markets News
Bitcoin () starts the second week of September facing crucial resistance as traders maintain downside targets.
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Bitcoin price action coils below $112,000 over the weekend, but fears of a 10% correction or worse are mounting.
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CPI week is here again, and markets are wondering how large next week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate cut will be.
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Data is starting to hint that the institutional “rotation” from BTC to Ether exchange-traded products is over.
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Bitcoin whales bring back the 2022 bear market with mass selling over the past month.
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Binance is in the spotlight over a potential BTC price top warning from market takers.
BTC price worries include sub-$100,000
Bitcoin managed to around its latest weekly close, data from and shows.
$112,000 remains a key target among traders hoping for a resistance/support flip.
Analyzing exchange order-book liquidity, popular trader CrypNuevo flagged $106,700 as an important level to the downside.
“If the previous range lows continue to be resistance, price will attempt to hit the liquidation at $106.7k,” he wrote in part of a thread on X Sunday.
As , attention is now focused on how low BTC/USD could drop in a potential capitulation event.
$100,000 is a favorite line in the sand, with Fibonacci retracement levels now confluent with a retest of that level as a “worst case scenario.”
Telegram analytics channel Coin Signals, meanwhile, contributed another, more concerning bottom target of 30% versus Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.
“Based on cycle’s default correction % and time taken to hit lows from a local top, BTC could see a -30% correction from local top $124k, Bottoming in the last week of SEP or first week of OCT,” part of an X post said.
Such a scenario would put BTC/USD at around $87,000.
CPI week comes with Fed behind the curve
Some classic US economic data prints are due this week — at a time when markets are already convinced about what lies ahead.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Inflation is on the rise, while signs of are increasing — a headache for the Federal Reserve, but one to which markets believe they already know the response.
Data from CME Group’s shows that the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting next week are fully priced in. There is even a fledgling chance of the cut being larger than the minimum 0.25%.
This comes amid growing criticism of Fed policy, which has kept rates steady throughout 2025 while other central banks cut.
“The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have cuts rates 4 and 3 times this year, respectively. The Bank of Canada has cut rates 2 times, as has the Swiss National Bank, which became the first major central bank to bring rates back to 0%,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on X Monday.
“Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains on hold with 0 rate cuts in 2025. US monetary policy is in its own world.”
Recession fears are also swirling, with Kobeissi reporting on a dip in construction spending — something it as a “key recession signal.”
“While seasonal trends point to weakness ahead, the longer-term path for the S&P 500 will come down to the economy once the Fed starts cutting rates again,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company continued in the latest edition of its regular updates series, “.”
Mosaic explained that the US needs to avoid recession to fuel stocks, which, together with gold, are currently gaining while Bitcoin lags behind.
“Over the long run, stock prices ultimately follow earnings which is why the economic outlook is critical,” it stressed.
Institutions “re-rotating” into Bitcoin
Buzz around an institutional capital “rotation” from Bitcoin into the largest altcoin Ether () already appears to be cooling.
Last week, inflows to BTC-denominated exchange-traded products (ETPs) ended in positive territory, sharply contrasting with ETH equivalents.
Figures uploaded to X Monday by Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, show Bitcoin ETPs added $444 million in the five days through Sept. 5.
In the same period, Ether ETPs saw net outflows of over $900 million.
“Interesting to see a renewed ‘re-rotation’ from $ETH back to $BTC in terms of global ETP flows last week,” Dragosch commented.
Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended the four-day trading week up around $250 million.
Data from UK investment firm captured four straight days of net outflows for spot Ether ETFs, totaling more than $750 million.
Bitcoin bear whales are back
When it comes to the largest Bitcoin investors, the trend is giving onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant cause for concern.
Whales are reducing their BTC exposure, and recent market distribution rivals the last bear market in 2022.
“In the last thirty days, whale reserves have fallen by more than 100,000 BTC, signaling intense risk aversion among large investors,” contributor Caue Oliveira wrote in one of CryptoQuant’s “” blog posts.
The 30-day through the end of last week was the largest since mid-2022. At the time, BTC/USD was around halfway through its , which bottomed out in November that year at $15,600.
“At this time, we are still seeing these reductions in the portfolios of major players, which may continue to pressure Bitcoin in the coming weeks,” Oliveira added.
As , shifts in whale behavior have had a noticeable impact on short-term price action as large chunks of liquidity come and go from exchange order books.
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio raises alarm
The Bitcoin futures market on the largest global exchange, Binance, is under scrutiny as liquidity tails off across perp markets.
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New research from CryptoQuant this week flags a classic signal corresponding to bull market corrections.
The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, which is the ratio of buy volume divided by taker sell volume, is currently making lower lows while the price itself expands.
“Bullish divergence of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has repeatedly occurred during the price bottom or sideways consolidation phases of this Bitcoin bull cycle, which has been ongoing since 2023,” contributor Mignolet summarized in another “” post.
Mignolet notes that such behavior was characteristic of the market peak during the 2021 bull run. Volume this time, however, is different thanks to the presence of institutional activity.
The situation could still become precarious if the trend continues.
“To be blunt, all liquidity is weakening,” the post concludes.
“If this liquidity recovers, the market likely isn’t over yet. However, if liquidity doesn’t recover despite numerous positive catalysts, the situation could become serious.”
Binance Bitcoin futures have traded since 2019, and since then have seen “colossal” volumes of over $700 trillion.
“This staggering number surpasses the estimated value of the global real estate market and is five times larger than the combined capitalization of global equities or bonds,” CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost Sunday.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
