Bitcoin rebounded to $116,000, but traders were nervous about the bull market even while stocks soared on news of a likely US-China trade deal.
Markets News
Bitcoin () started the last week of October with a welcome rebound; can BTC price action cancel its dip from all-time highs?
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Bitcoin reached $114,500 for the weekly close as bulls staged a much-needed comeback, but many traders remained unconvinced.
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FOMC week began with stocks breathing a sigh of relief on reduced US-China tariff odds.
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Ongoing rate cuts may boost BTC price action by default, according to research, as AI predicts a return to $125,000.
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“Uptober” 2025 for Bitcoin may avoid gaining the notorious title of “worst October ever.”
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Short-term holders are back in profit, with room to grow before hitting classic retracement levels.
Bitcoin price hurdles linger as $115,000 returns
Bitcoin delivered for the bulls into the weekly close.
Data from and shows BTC/USD sealing a rebound to $114,500 and reclaiming the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
At the weekend, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged that trend line as a key level to hold going forward.
Bitcoin is positioned for a positive Weekly Close above the 21-week EMA (green)
The recent breakout from the Ascending Triangle on the Daily timeframe has enabled this positive position on the Weekly timeframe
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital)
“Bitcoin is enjoying a strong rebound from the Macro Range Low,” he wrote in a post on X Sunday.
“Still just Macro consolidating inside this Monthly Range. In fact, Bitcoin has a chance to turn the September Monthly Highs into new support by the end of the month.”
Despite its impressive recovery, Bitcoin still struggled to convince many market participants that the bull market was back.
Among them, trader Roman reiterated weakness on higher time frames, low volume and bearish divergences on Bitcoin’s relative strength index ().
“Watching for this potential HTF Head & Shoulders bearish reversal setup. Validates on a break below 109k neckline,” he X followers Monday alongside the one-week chart.
“I’ve been very adamant that HTF is exhausted and I’m not expecting higher. We shall see if this turns into a reversal or more consolidation for higher.”
Trading account HTL-NL placed BTC/USD in an expanding triangle, arguing that the overall situation had not changed after the uptick.
GM . Still not much to add. Soon we will see how strong this move is, or if we need another down.
— HTL-NL 🇳🇱 (@htltimor)
Data from monitoring resource showed price slicing through liquidation levels both above and below as volatility returned.
Fed rate cut expected as stocks surge
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve takes center stage in macroeconomic news this week, and markets are betting on positive outcomes.
Amid an absence of inflation data due to the government shutdown, the Fed has less to go on than usual when it comes to rates.
That said, markets are confident that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will opt for a 0.25% cut; data from CME Group’s puts the odds at over 95%.
The sole data print that was released, last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), by showing inflation below expectations.
“We have a huge week ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter .
Kobeissi noted that significant corporate earnings would add to the potential for market volatility in the coming days, with Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and more due to report.
Another key topic on the radar is the US-China trade deal. The threat of tariffs earlier this month, while over the weekend, Washington announced that a deal was near completion.
US President Donald Trump will meet with China’s Xi Jinping on Thursday.
Stocks futures surged at the start of the week in response to the news, which removed a major hurdle to the continuation of the bull market.
“The S&P 500 has now added +$3 TRILLION since its October 10th low after PresidenTrump’s’s 100% China tariff was announced,” Kobeissi .
“This is the most profitable market of all time.”
AI sees all-time highs possible this month
Continuing on the topic of interest rates, network economist Timothy Peterson had more “hopium” for Bitcoin bulls this week.
Bitcoin price cycles, he argued, are directly influenced by rate policy; cutting cycles can thus only be a boost to the bull case.
“Interest rates still too high, but QE coming,” he , referring to a central-bank liquidity injection method known as quantitative easing (QE).
Peterson has gained popularity for his research into BTC price growth and Metcalfe’s law, linking the Bitcoin network’s expansion to long-term price floors.
“Addresses/Metcalfe’s Law is how Bitcoin is valued,” he continued.
“This trend is up. There is no bubble. All dips temporary, we eventually go higher.”
Revealing the latest readings from an AI simulation of how BTC price action could shape up in the near term, Peterson set $115,000 as the new focal point.
$125,000 is on the table as a credible target before the end of October.
The model’s readings have reduced only slightly as a result of the recent downside, which saw BTC/USD briefly touch $102,000 on Binance.
Uptober finally flips back to “green”
With price volatility still high, Bitcoin’s 2025 “Uptober” still hangs in the balance.
At $115,000, BTC/USD is about 1% higher than its October opening level, helping avoid a “red” month at the most unexpected time.
Despite that, this year’s October performance is still far from optimal — as , average gains have been 20% since 2013.
Market participants are thus focusing on a major comeback next month.
Uptober was… interesting.
But we still have Growvember!!!
— Kyle Chassé / DD🐸 (@kyle_chasse)
Trader Daan Crypto Trades predicted an “interesting” monthly close, with sentiment in both September and October contradicting price action.
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has opened & closed within a small 8% price range during the past 4 months,” he X followers.
“A bigger move is coming at some point. I’m assuming the end of 2025 is going to be more volatile than the past few months.”
Data from the currently indicates that the crypto market sentiment is in “neutral” territory.
The one-month chart, meanwhile, shows a fresh record in the making. At $115,750, BTC/USD will achieve its highest monthly close in history.
Short-term holders back in the black
Out of all the Bitcoin hodlers, recent buyers are arguably breathing the biggest sigh of relief this week.
Related:
Short-term holders (STHs) — entities that have bought within the last six months — are now back above their aggregate cost basis, near $113,000.
Data from onchain analytics platform confirms that the Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) is back above 1, reaching its highest levels since Oct. 8.
CryptoQuant research reveals that recently, overall supply in profit tends to reach 95% before a local correction.
“These corrections often find a bottom around the 75% threshold. More precisely we have got 73% on September 2024: 73%, 76% on April 2024 and recently 81%,” contributor Darkfost wrote in one of its blog posts Sunday.
“Now, the percentage of supply in profit is slowly rising again, currently around 83.6%, a level that can be interpreted as encouraging, suggesting that investors are once again willing to hold their BTC while expecting further upside.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
