Crypto ready for ‘up only’ mode once US TGA hits $850B target: Arthur Hayes

Crypto markets will enter “up only” mode once the United States Treasury hits its target goal of filling the General Account (TGA), the Treasury Department’s bank account, with $850 billion, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange.

“With this liquidity drain complete, up only can resume,” Hayes on Friday as the US TGA’s opening balance crossed $807 billion. When the Treasury is filling its General Account, the funds are generally sequestered and do not flow into private markets.

However, not all analysts were convinced by Hayes’ prediction that once the US Treasury hits its goal.

“Net liquidity has a loose correlation to Bitcoin and crypto at best, though. Think that is a useless banana in my view,” André Dragosch, the European head of research at investment firm Bitwise, .

Many crypto investors and traders anticipate in the coming months as the US Federal Reserve leans into the interest rate-cutting cycle, which should until liquidity dries up and the rate-tightening process begins again.

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The United States Federal Reserve (BPS), or a quarter of a percent, on Wednesday — the first interest rate cut since 2024.

Bitcoin () immediately following the rate cut, in a classic sell-the-news event.

Nic Puckrin, founder of education and media company Coin Bureau, warned of a short term pullback and said that markets likely priced in the cut ahead of the US central bank’s decision to slash rates.

Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the group of 19 officials that weighs interest rate decisions, remains in 2025.

However, 91.9% of traders anticipate the FOMC will cut interest rates by up to 50 BPS at the next meeting in October, according to retrieved at the time of this writing from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group.

The CME Group is a company that manages major financial derivatives exchanges, including futures marketplaces.

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