Improving retail crypto and TradFi investor sentiment align with the recent uptick in Bitcoin price, but sell orders and short positions in the $93,000 range threaten to cap the rally.
Market Analysis
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin price repeatedly revisited the $90,000 range as retail investor sentiment improved, fund managers restated their bullish expectations for a potential end-of-year rally, and Strategy announced a sizable BTC purchase.
According to VanEck head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, Bernstein that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.”
Bernstein’s comments follow BlackRock chair and CEO Larry Fink that sovereign wealth funds are “incrementally” buying Bitcoin as it “has fallen from its $126,000 peak.”
Fink said,
“I know they bought more in the 80s. And they’re establishing a longer position. And you own it over years. This is not a trade. You won if for a purpose, but the market is skewed, it is heavily leveraged and that’s why you’re going to have more volatility.”
Mirroring Fink’s and Bernstein’s view, on Monday, Strategy announced a fresh 10,624 BTC ($962.7 million) purchase at an average $90,615 per coin. Bitwise European head of research Andre Dragosch that Strategy’s purchase “was the biggest amount since July 2025.”
While Bitcoin’s recovery from its Nov. 21 low of $80,612 has followed the improvement in investor sentiment, the price is still capped in the $90,000 to $93,000 range. On Saturday, chartered market technician Aksel Kibar ,
“This is part of the choppy price action where BTC/USD is possibly trying to find a bottom. Technical support is lower between $73.7K and $76.5K. It took few months in March-May period to form that short-term double bottom.”
Related:
Cumulative volume data from Hyblock provides a more nuanced view, highlighting rising participation from investors in the 0 to 100 BTC trade cohort, which some analysts label as retail. Larger trade-size cohorts in the 1,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1 million (cumulative volume delta) appear to be selling on rallies in the $90,000 to $93,000 price range.
Similarly, order book data for BTC/USDT (perpetual contracts at Binance) shows a wall of asks starting at $90,000 and thickening from $94,000 to $95,000.
Liquidation heatmap data, on the other hand, shows short liquidity at $94,000 to $95,300, which could serve as fuel for bulls to attempt a run on $100,000 if the market provides sufficient catalysts to induce an uptick in either spot or futures buying.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
