Crypto ‘waiting room’ ahead of market top in Q1 2026: Raoul Pal

The cryptocurrency market may be in the “waiting room” ahead of the next phase of the price discovery stage, in a development that may see institutional capital extend the historical four-year cycle, according to industry watchers.

As is awaiting its next catalyst, the “slow business cycle’s” liquidity dynamics may extend the traditional four-year cycle into the first or second quarter of 2026, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor

“Many key parts of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch,” wrote the popular analyst in a Friday X , adding: 

“Our work suggests (probabilistically speaking) that the cycle extends into Q1 2026 and possibly Q2 2026 due to slow business cycle forcing more liquidity for longer.”

“People need to learn patience. The path is clear…but never, ever expect tick for tick perfection,” he explained.

Pal uses the business cycle score as a macroeconomic model to track the current stage of the global economy’s broader cycle.

“Raoul’s framing of crypto being in the ‘waiting room’ resonates with how markets are behaving right now,” according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at real-world asset tokenization platform Brickken.

The recent pullback “came not from onchain dynamics but from political tensions between President Trump and the Federal Reserve,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“What supports the thesis of an extended cycle into 2026 is that institutional positioning hasn’t turned bearish.”

Institutional allocations toward the two leading cryptocurrencies remain robust despite the “tug-of-war” over interest rate policy, the analyst said.

Meanwhile, surpassed $1.65 billion, which may be seen as a potential precursor for renewed cryptocurrency investments, as stablecoins are the primary funding tools for traders.

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Some of the cryptocurrency market’s leading altcoins are currently preparing to leave the “waiting room” ahead for the final parabolic stage of the rally, with the Solana () token being the “next to leave,” wrote Pal, sharing the below chart.

The chart shows an ascending triangle pattern, which is seen by technical traders as a bullish continuation pattern, signaling a potential price breakout upon confirmation.

Following the Solana token, Sui () will be the next altcoin to gain momentum, followed by Dogecoin (), once the largest cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10, also tracked as “OTHERS,” will start to rally, predicted Pal.

Meanwhile, the XRP () token is “in the process of full porting,” while the largest altcoins excluding the top 10 may still take “longer to launch.”

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Two months ago, Pal said that the current crypto market cycle mirrors patterns , when Bitcoin’s () price skyrocketed by over 1,255% during the year.

“It’s spookily similar to 2017,” Pal in a video on June 19, forecasting a longer crypto cycle compared to previous years, as a weakening US dollar may indicate that the crypto cycle is still far from its peak.