Trump has come into office with a wrecking ball – and his acts of unpredictability, both domestically and abroad, have only hampered the dollar’s status as the choice reserve currency. In the crypto world, this only means one thing – USD-pegged stablecoins will wane in dominance, leaving a vacuum for other currencies to pounce. And of them, it might just be the EUR coins that muscle up the hardest.
Let’s take a step back. Since Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has fallen to a three-year low against a basket of major currencies, declining by approximately 5% over roughly the last six months. A combination of whimsical trade policy, feckless fiscal bets, and, overall, international antagonism have beleaguered the U.S. market, damning its equities, raising its Treasury yields, and taking an axe to the dollar. The U.S.’s prominence as the strongest and most stable economy has been tested. And we’ve even seen an “Anywhere, but the USA” trade come to light as a result.
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With the U.S. economy and markets so volatile, investors have – as usual – fled to safe-haven assets like gold to mitigate any losses. But surprisingly, the euro has also risen up the ranks: according to a recent report by Reuters, central bankers across the globe are now looking at gold, the renminbi, and the euro as choice reserve assets. The world is diversifying away from the dollar – and that’ll be sure to reflect in DeFi.
Of course, that being said, I’m not talking about a full-fledged overtake here.
In the stablecoin world, USD is very much king. Tether dominates nearly 70% of the market, and we’ve even seen Circle make headlines for securing a $5.4 billion IPO. But as the dollar wanes – especially to the point it makes losses against emerging markets and the G10 – I just think the market will broaden out. USD monopolies might not be as strong.
Currently, there are 12 prominent euro-pegged stablecoins and 56 USD counterparts – a huge difference.
But as the euro makes up its losses and gains further strength, who’s to say these coins won’t compete? With enthusiastic fiscal policy, stronger defence spending, and, of course, the momentum of capital flow, the euro has climbed to near pivotal $1.20. And if Trump continues on his current path, I expect this will only climb further.
It’s not just a trend of de-dollarization to factor in, either. The E.U. has become increasingly open to crypto, this year cementing the final provisions of the MiCA framework – giving crypto issuers the ability to attain licences and establish themselves in the regulated European market. Tether is not compliant with MiCA, giving alternative coins – including EUR-pegged ones, such as EURC – an opportunity to strengthen their regional market share.
By way of that, the E.U. has subsequently adopted a more favorable and supportive stance toward crypto issuers. OKX, Crypto.com, Coinbase, and soon perhaps even Gemini are all crypto issuers and exchanges with or about to receive EU approval. Forget Trump’s vows to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet.” The EU is fast catching up.
Europe is no longer the anti-innovation, bureaucratic monster it once was. It has palmed off its past scepticism, opened its doors to digital assets, and beyond that, as per Christine Lagarde, is ambitious enough to be pushing for its “global euro moment.” It is truly capitalizing on the misfortunes of Uncle Sam, and I see no plausible reason as to how this won’t reflect in the stablecoin market.
I understand the attitude toward stablecoins is still mixed. The Bank of International Settlements has recently as a “financial stability risk.” Even so, the global market cap of the broader ecosystem recently peaked at over $250 billion. The size, popularity, and appeal of the market cannot be denied. And they’re certainly more practical than tokenised currencies, as BIS’ Project Agora is attempting to push forward.
As such, I don’t see the stablecoin market contracting any time soon. And as long as Trump continues his heavy-handed approach and Europe capitalises on the fallout, I can only see issuers veering closer and closer to EUR-based coins. Complete de-dollarisation is far from realistic, but as long as the euro remains on its upward trajectory, so will investments into and transactions via the continent and its currency.
By 2028 – and by that, I mean the end of Trump’s term – I predict we’ll see more EUR-pegged stablecoins come to the surface, and so much so that they’ll even threaten their American counterparts. Recession risks, bear market risks, and, overall, a lack of investor confidence have taken the dollar into the doldrums.
Europe’s time is now.
