This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose during the European morning on Monday, peaking at around $63,200, before retreating below $62,800. BTC may be again trying to rally above $64,000, of which there have been numerous instances this month, all of which have been sold off. This behavior, along with transaction numbers plummeting, points toward a consolidation in the market and the possibility of bitcoin being range-bound for the time being. At the time of writing, bitcoin is 2.34% higher in the last 24 hours at $62,543. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the broader digital market, has added 1.1%, with the likes of ETH and SOL showing more modest gains, trading just below $3,000 and $150 respectively.
Bitcoin’s price action since it attained new all-time highs in March has been characterized by lower lows and lower highs as a shift toward selling has taken hold in the market thanks to long- and short-term holders alike being in profit. “A failure below $60K could trigger something of a panic sell-off,” FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in a note. “The positive scenario, in our opinion, will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May.” He added that downward pressure is likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and concerns over tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Japanese investment and consulting firm Metaplanet has adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset to hedge against the country’s debt burden and yen volatility. Metaplanet has acquired 117.7 BTC ($7.35 million) since April, imitating the strategy of MicroStrategy in the U.S. The ratio between Japan’s gross debt and GDP currently exceeds 254%, the highest in the advanced world, according to data tracked by the IMF. For comparison, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%. The yen has depreciated by 50% against the U.S. dollar since early 2021. “As the yen continues to weaken, Bitcoin offers a non-sovereign store of value that has, and may continue, to appreciate against traditional fiat currencies,” Metaplanet said.
The chart shows the percentage change in the U.S. M2 from a year ago.
M2 measures the money supply, including cash, checking deposits and other deposits readily convertible to cash.
The M2 growth rate flipped positive in April, a positive sign for risk assets.
“Simple rule … liquidity leads risk assets,” James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said.
Source: fred.stlouisfed.org
– Omkar Godbole
