Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who predicted Bitcoin would likely hit $100 before $100,000, admitted he was wrong about three things.
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Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who once predicted Bitcoin would more likely crash to $100 before it hit $100,000, admitted that a lot has changed since his comments seven years ago, though he seemingly still hasn’t come around to Bitcoin.
“Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100K. What did I miss?” he on X on Wednesday, referring to a segment on “Squawk Box” in March 2018.
Rogoff is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and also author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem,” a book published in May.
In 2018, Rogoff said that government would trigger a drop in Bitcoin prices.
However, since the Trump administration won the November election, Bitcoin broke $100,000 in December 2024 and has surged more than 80% to a new all-time high.
“I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” he , indicating his stance on crypto hasn’t changed.
Bitcoin competes with fiat currency
“Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy,” he continued on X.
Still, Bitcoin has become an in many countries where local currencies have been massively devalued by governments.
Illicit activity tied to cryptocurrencies was around $50 billion in 2024, to Chainalysis, but this is a drop in the ocean and less than 1% of what is laundered using cash.
“Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest.”
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Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, , stating that Rogoff “Failed to imagine that a decentralized project, which drew power from people and not centralized institutions, could succeed at scale.”
Meanwhile, a researcher at digital assets brokerage FalconX, David Lawant, he was “very thankful” to Rogoff, as his book “The Curse of Cash,” was “so terrible” that it was “one of the things that pushed me to BTC.”
Head of digital assets research and VanEck, Matthew Sigel, his list of Bitcoin’s loudest critics on Tuesday, ranking Rogoff in ninth place. He “wrote Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his own echo chamber,” said Sigel.
“Maybe you missed it because you live in an echo chamber, same as when you lock replies,” he , referring to Rogoff preventing people from replying to his posts on X.
“Fundamentals matter: fiat debasement, demographic wealth shifts, and global demand for a neutral reserve asset.”
Ironically, the Harvard Management Company, which is responsible for managing the university’s $53 billion endowment fund, in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF earlier this month.
⚡ FLASHBACK: In 2018, a Harvard economist said is more likely to hit $100 than $100K.
Now they invested $116M.
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph)
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