Kalshi may be basking in the glory of a court victory over regulators, but it will have to wait at least until Friday to list its long-sought prediction markets on the upcoming U.S. election.
On Monday afternoon, Judge Jia Cobb of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia called for a Thursday hearing. In the meantime, she stayed her Friday order clearing the way for Kalshi to list event contracts on which party will control each house of Congress after the election.
Last year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission barred Kalshi from listing such contracts. Among other reasons, the regulator said it was concerned about potential damage to the integrity of elections if traders were allowed to bet as much as $100 million on them. Kalshi then sued.
In her Friday ruling, Judge Cobb sided with Kalshi but did not give her rationale, which she said she would spell out in a subsequent opinion. She still has not said when that opinion would be published.
Hours after its defeat, the CFTC filed its emergency motion asking Cobb to stay her order for 14 days following publication of the opinion. Without knowing her reasoning, the agency said, it can’t determine whether it should appeal the decision.
If granted, the stay proposed by the CFTC would prevent Kalshi from listing election markets until late September at the earliest, giving it only five weeks or so to partake in this year’s election betting boom. The company has been locked out of the action while the case was pending.
However, the stay Judge Cobb ordered Monday will last only until the end of Thursday’s hearing, meaning that depending on what happens, Kalshi might still be able to list the markets as soon as Friday.
Kalshi is the only CFTC-regulated prediction market in the U.S., the only country where the company has users. It lists contracts on a variety of events, ranging from whether U.S. students’ test scores will improve or worsen to how high bitcoin will rise this year. (To be clear: Trades are settled in dollars.)
PredictIt, an older U.S.-only site that also settles bets in fiat, lists election contracts under a narrow regulatory exemption. Polymarket, this year’s breakout success story in both prediction markets and cryptocurrency, is barred from doing business with U.S. residents under a settlement with the CFTC.
Nevertheless, both companies have gained market share at Kalshi’s expense, the company complained in a weekend filing pushing back against the CFTC’s proposed delay.
