Kraken IPO, M&A deals to reignite crypto’s ‘mid-stage’ cycle: fund manager

A potential initial public offering (IPO) next year by cryptocurrency exchange Kraken may attract fresh capital from traditional finance (TradFi) investors.

Bitcoin recorded an all-time high price above $126,000 on Oct. 6, but hasn’t recovered from a that hit the industry a few days later. At the time of writing, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading at $87,015 per coin, down 6% in two weeks, according to CoinGecko.

Still, Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 50T Funds, claimed that the Bitcoin () bull market is “still mid-stage.” He added that Kraken’s IPO and an increasing number of (M&As) may provide the necessary tailwinds to bring new capital from TradFi.

in funding to reach a $20 billion valuation, the exchange announced on Nov. 18. It filed for a US IPO earlier in November.

Not all analysts are convinced that the bull cycle will continue. Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, Jurrien Timmer, expects a in 2026.

Related:

Tapiero’s prediction contrasts with the views shared by Timmer, who expects a down year may lead Bitcoin to a local .

“Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ (or ‘off year’) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k,” wrote Timmer in a Thursday X .

While Bitcoin’s four-year cycle provided the “initial rhythm,” market movements are now dictated by more fundamental drivers, including global liquidity and continued sovereign adoption, according to Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer of Axis, an onchain quantitative yield platform managing $100 million in live capital.

“It’s not surprising to see institutional caution as we close out 2025,” as Fidelity’s call for a pullback is a “valid reminder that volatility is still on the table,” Xue told Cointelegraph, adding:

“However, framing 2026 purely as a year of downside might be missing the forest for the trees.”

“If global liquidity continues to loosen, that $75k support might actually end up being a higher low in a longer, super-cycle structure,” he explained, adding that the four-year cycle is “evolving into a broader secular trend” dictated by macroeconomic forces.

The industry’s most successful traders by returns, who are tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform, have also been betting on the market’s short-term decline.

Smart money was net short on all the top cryptocurrencies, except the Avalanche () token and the memecoin launchpad Pump.fun’s (PUMP) coin, according to .

Magazine: