New York Reintroduces Bill Restricting Prediction Markets

New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has reintroduced legislation to the US state’s lower house that aims to restrict what event contracts prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket can offer.

Vanel the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events, or ORACLE Act, to the New York State Assembly on Wednesday, which was first introduced in November and aims to ban certain markets tied to politics, sports, the stock market and others.

Prediction markets have over the past year and offer bets on a range of events, but markets on sports are a particular money maker, with Foresight Ventures finding up to 90% of Kalshi’s volume was tied to sports.

The bill would ban sports tied to the outcome of a particular match, such as NFL games during the season, but would still allow bets on the outcome of the league, such as the winner of the Super Bowl.

It would also ban “prop betting” — contracts that focus on particulars of the game, such as the first scoring team or wagers around a particular player.

*Monthly trading volumes on Polymarket (blue) and Kalshi (green) have skyrocketed over the past four months to record highs. Source:*

Prediction market platforms have already crossed paths with , with agencies arguing that they need gambling licenses to operate.

Kalshi, in particular, has sued multiple , including the New York State Gaming Commission, arguing that it is regulated under federal law.

Vanel’s bill would also ban prediction markets around politics, deaths, or a “catastrophic event.”

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Markets allowing bets on elections or government actions, such as which political party will win the US midterms, would be outlawed, as would markets that relate to “war, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises.”

The bill would also ban so-called “death markets,” which allow wagers on the death or killing of people, along with markets allowing speculation on the price of a publicly traded company.

Platforms must also provide a way for users to self-exclude and limit the amount of time and money they spend on the platform. Markets that continue to operate in New York after being ordered to stop would be fined $1 million a day until they do so.