At the beginning of November, the odds of a December rate cut were 67% among traders, but they have since cratered alongside investor sentiment.
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The odds of an interest rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting have plunged to 33% as “extreme fear” grips the crypto market and the price of Bitcoin () dips below $89,000.
Investors placed the odds of a December rate cut at about 67% during the first week of November, with the on Thursday, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Traders on prediction markets and forecast the odds of a December rate cut at about 70% and 67%, respectively. While higher than CME, traders in general appear more hesitant about rate cuts due to persistent fears about inflation, to The Kobeissi Letter.
The plummeting odds of a December rate cut and declining crypto prices have sparked a panic, with some analysts now warning that the downturn could signal the and falling asset prices.
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The price of BTC again on Wednesday after failing to defend the key support level and has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, for the last six days.
Bitcoin’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also crossed below the 200-day EMA. This signal, known as the “death cross,” suggests further downside for BTC.
Some analysts now , where the price could bottom out before rebounding by the end of 2025, while others speculate whether the cycle top is already in.
“The time for Bitcoin to bounce, if the cycle is not over, would start within the next week,” market analyst Benjamin Cowen on Sunday.
“If no bounce occurs within 1 week, probably another dump before a larger rally back to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which would then mark a macro lower high,” Cowen added.
The forecasts came amid cratering crypto investor sentiment. Investor sentiment measured by the “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” is at 16 at the time of this writing, indicating “extreme fear” among investors.
This places crypto investor market sentiment at just one point above the yearly low, according to .
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