Polymarket Bettors Put Nearly $80M on Biden’s Democratic Chances

Nearly $80 million was in play across six bets related to President Joe Biden’s status as the Democrat’s nominee, according to Polymarket data, excluding specific bets related to the presidency.

The market with the largest pool asked bettors to pick the Democratic nominee. This process of officially picking a nominee begins for the party on August 19 at its convention, but the specifics are now up in the air with Biden’s resignation.

In total, $51.5 million was bet directly on, or against, Biden in a pool of $205 million.

At the end of June, the market as to whether Biden would be the nominee was trading at 90 cents, representing a 90% chance he would be the Democrat’s candidate. While there was a considerable amount of volatility throughout the first weeks of July as calls for Biden to drop out amplified – met with a resolute insistence on Biden saying he was staying in – as of July 17, it was back up to 80 cents.

One trader by the name of AnonBidenBull lost nearly $1.8 million on this contract, and over $2 million in total with their other related Biden bets.

Meanwhile, markets that asked bettors to speculate on some variation of the question as to whether Biden would resign pooled a total of $27.5 million.

The largest of these markets, with $21 million at stake, asked if Biden would drop out of the race. Other markets asked for a specific date of his resignation, or if he’d be on specific state ballots for the Presidential ticket.

One user by the name of ‘therealbatman’ lost nearly $647,500 on this specific bet, and around $1 million in total on his Biden-related punts as they projected Biden to win the popular vote.

On Twitter, Polymarket pointed out that traders had given a significant edge to Biden dropping out in the days before the announcement was made, with the market shooting up to 100% in the moments prior to media coverage of the announcement (Polymarket initially claimed it was hours before, but a community note on X said that because of the difference in time zones it was only minutes).

Market data shows a flurry of activity in the time before the announcement was made.

Overall the user polybets1 appears to be the most profitable political trader of the moment, as they are well in the green on their Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump positions.

Overall this trader has so far booked a profit of $691,000 on positions worth $1.7 million.