• Latest
  • All
  • Breaking
  • Announcements
  • Learn
  • Analysis
  • Current events
Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

March 21, 2025
Spar rolls out nationwide stablecoin and crypto payments in Switzerland

Spar rolls out nationwide stablecoin and crypto payments in Switzerland

August 14, 2025
Vietnam police bust billion-dollar crypto Ponzi ring behind Paynet Coin scam: Report

Vietnam police bust billion-dollar crypto Ponzi ring behind Paynet Coin scam: Report

August 14, 2025
BtcTurk halts withdrawals amid suspected $48M crypto hack

BtcTurk halts withdrawals amid suspected $48M crypto hack

August 14, 2025
Bitcoin showed the path, and decentralized AI must ditch rented compute

Bitcoin showed the path, and decentralized AI must ditch rented compute

August 14, 2025
Bitcoin drops below $119K after US Treasury secretary rules out new BTC purchases

Bitcoin drops below $119K after US Treasury secretary rules out new BTC purchases

August 14, 2025
From White House reports to Wall Street: How ZK-proofs are taking over blockchain

From White House reports to Wall Street: How ZK-proofs are taking over blockchain

August 14, 2025
Vietnam state-run Military Bank partners with Dunamu to launch crypto exchange

Vietnam state-run Military Bank partners with Dunamu to launch crypto exchange

August 14, 2025
Jack Dorsey’s Block targets 10-year lifecycle for Bitcoin mining rigs

Jack Dorsey’s Block targets 10-year lifecycle for Bitcoin mining rigs

August 14, 2025
Charles Schwab, Fidelity among traditional companies hiring for crypto expansion

Charles Schwab, Fidelity among traditional companies hiring for crypto expansion

August 14, 2025
Altcoin Google searches hit highest since 2021 amid ETF, treasury moves

Altcoin Google searches hit highest since 2021 amid ETF, treasury moves

August 14, 2025
Google Play’s new rules won’t affect non-custodial crypto wallets

Google Play’s new rules won’t affect non-custodial crypto wallets

August 14, 2025
ETH transaction count rising amid $5K push, but competition erodes market share

ETH transaction count rising amid $5K push, but competition erodes market share

August 14, 2025
Friday, August 15, 2025
8V Crypto Academy
8V Academy - 8V.com - Your Cryptocurrency Gateway
  • About 8V
    • 8V Exchange
    • 8V Blog
  • Market Beat
    • Today Real-time Market Data
    • Web3
    • Breaking
    • Tokens
    • Markets
    • Compliance
    • Exchanges
    • Tech
    • GameFi
    • NFT
    • Defi
    • Miscellaneous
  • Platform
    • 8V Announcements
    • Events
      • Current Events
      • Closed Events
    • Product
      • 8V Overview
      • Assets
      • Exchange
        • Spot Trading
        • Futures Trading
        • Leverage Trading
      • Copy Trading
      • Earn
        • Fixed
        • Flexible
      • Cryptocurrency Debit Card
      • Buy Crypto Instantly
      • Strategy Trading
    • Trading Fees and Limits
    • 8V Exchange API
    • Referral Scheme
    • Bug Bounty
    • FAQ
      • Account Functions
      • Deposits & Withdrawals
      • Others
  • Academy
    • How To Buy Crypto
    • Learning Centre
    • Analysis Center
    • Crypto Glossary
  • Business
    • Coin Listing Request
    • Crypto Trader Application
    • Partnerships
  • Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • Service Agreement
    • Disclaimer
    • Compliance Notice
  • English
    • English
    • 中文 (台灣)
    • 中文 (中国)
  • Members
    • Login
    • Register
    • Activate
    • Add New Friends
No Result
View All Result
  • About 8V
    • 8V Exchange
    • 8V Blog
  • Market Beat
    • Today Real-time Market Data
    • Web3
    • Breaking
    • Tokens
    • Markets
    • Compliance
    • Exchanges
    • Tech
    • GameFi
    • NFT
    • Defi
    • Miscellaneous
  • Platform
    • 8V Announcements
    • Events
      • Current Events
      • Closed Events
    • Product
      • 8V Overview
      • Assets
      • Exchange
        • Spot Trading
        • Futures Trading
        • Leverage Trading
      • Copy Trading
      • Earn
        • Fixed
        • Flexible
      • Cryptocurrency Debit Card
      • Buy Crypto Instantly
      • Strategy Trading
    • Trading Fees and Limits
    • 8V Exchange API
    • Referral Scheme
    • Bug Bounty
    • FAQ
      • Account Functions
      • Deposits & Withdrawals
      • Others
  • Academy
    • How To Buy Crypto
    • Learning Centre
    • Analysis Center
    • Crypto Glossary
  • Business
    • Coin Listing Request
    • Crypto Trader Application
    • Partnerships
  • Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • Service Agreement
    • Disclaimer
    • Compliance Notice
  • English
    • English
    • 中文 (台灣)
    • 中文 (中国)
  • Members
    • Login
    • Register
    • Activate
    • Add New Friends
No Result
View All Result
8V Crypto Academy
No Result
View All Result

Polymarket is 90% Accurate in Predicting World Events: Research

March 21, 2025
in Breaking, News
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW

Don’t miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto for Advisors Newsletter today.See all newslettersBy signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to ourterms of useandprivacy policy.

McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.

Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.

Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.

McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with $54 million in volume) during the last election to show that longer-term Polymarket markets often include obviously predictable outcomes, like Newsom clearly not winning, which boosts the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long-term predictions.

In contrast, head-to-head sports markets, which have fewer extreme outcomes such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, present a clearer representation of predictive accuracy, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in accuracy as events unfold and revealing periodic accuracy spikes.

Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on the outcomes of the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data portal Polymarket Analytics.

McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of Polymarket are likely to be of interest in Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that new Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what poll aggregators are showing.

 

Previous Post

U.S. Bank Agency Cuts ‘Reputational Risk’ From Exams After Crypto Sector Cites Issues

Next Post

Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy

Related Posts

Spar rolls out nationwide stablecoin and crypto payments in Switzerland
Breaking

Spar rolls out nationwide stablecoin and crypto payments in Switzerland

August 14, 2025
Vietnam police bust billion-dollar crypto Ponzi ring behind Paynet Coin scam: Report
Breaking

Vietnam police bust billion-dollar crypto Ponzi ring behind Paynet Coin scam: Report

August 14, 2025
BtcTurk halts withdrawals amid suspected $48M crypto hack
Breaking

BtcTurk halts withdrawals amid suspected $48M crypto hack

August 14, 2025
Bitcoin showed the path, and decentralized AI must ditch rented compute
Breaking

Bitcoin showed the path, and decentralized AI must ditch rented compute

August 14, 2025
Bitcoin drops below $119K after US Treasury secretary rules out new BTC purchases
Breaking

Bitcoin drops below $119K after US Treasury secretary rules out new BTC purchases

August 14, 2025
From White House reports to Wall Street: How ZK-proofs are taking over blockchain
Breaking

From White House reports to Wall Street: How ZK-proofs are taking over blockchain

August 14, 2025
Next Post
Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy

Australia Proposes New Crypto Regulation Structure, Plans to Integrate Digital Assets Into the Economy

Please login to join discussion
Top 20 Coins
Click on coin symbol for more information.
SYMBOL
PRICE
1D%
1W%
TREND
BTC
$118,634.00
-3.55%
1.61%
60%
ETH
$4,609.61
-2.81%
17.61%
78%
XRP
$3.1128
-5.40%
-7.08%
57%
BNB
$847.82
-0.71%
7.66%
89%
SOL
$194.49
-6.78%
11.65%
74%
DOGE
$0.2280
-8.96%
2.97%
55%
TRX
$0.3581
-2.10%
5.75%
65%
ADA
$0.9223
-6.89%
16.92%
80%
HYPE
$48.2168
0.97%
17.84%
92%
LINK
$22.5766
-5.17%
19.17%
69%
SUI
$3.7975
-7.26%
0.80%
60%
XLM
$0.4260
-7.17%
-7.92%
50%
BCH
$593.26
-5.28%
3.26%
61%
HBAR
$0.2509
-7.38%
-4.41%
51%
AVAX
$24.7386
-3.08%
6.92%
68%
LTC
$121.71
-8.28%
0.69%
48%
TONCOIN
$3.4244
-4.81%
2.99%
55%
LEO
$9.5056
2.69%
4.84%
100%
SHIB
$0.0000
-7.35%
1.37%
35%
UNI
$10.9680
-8.36%
4.92%
53%
to of
Page of
Powered By 8V.com

Academy Analysis Announcements Blog Breaking Closed events Compliance Current events Events GameFi Learn Miscellaneous News NFT Platform Tech

  • Top 10 Altcoins to Watch in Q4 2025 to Q4 2026
  • 2026 Crypto Trend Prediction: Uncovering Future Shifts in Crypto Sectors
  • Unveiling the Future: Can Ethereum’s Upgrade Solve Economic Scalability Challenges
  • Elon Musk and Crypto: A Comprehensive Analysis and Shift in Strategy
  • Surviving the Crypto Shakeout: A Deep Dive into 1,200 Seed-Funded Projects from the Last Two Years
  • Analyzing Uniswap & Unichain
  • Analyzing Bitcoin Mining Pools and the Impact of Bitcoin Halving
8v.com - download APP 8v.com - download APP 8v.com - download APP
  • About 8V
  • Download APP
  • Announcements
  • Breaking News
  • RSS Feeds
  • Service Agreement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer

© 2025 8V.com - 8V Crypto Academy - Empower your crypto journey! 8V.com

No Result
View All Result
  • About 8V
    • 8V Exchange
    • 8V Blog
  • Market Beat
    • Today Real-time Market Data
    • Web3
    • Breaking
    • Tokens
    • Markets
    • Compliance
    • Exchanges
    • Tech
    • GameFi
    • NFT
    • Defi
    • Miscellaneous
  • Platform
    • 8V Announcements
    • Events
      • Current Events
      • Closed Events
    • Product
      • 8V Overview
      • Assets
      • Exchange
      • Copy Trading
      • Earn
      • Cryptocurrency Debit Card
      • Buy Crypto Instantly
      • Strategy Trading
    • Trading Fees and Limits
    • 8V Exchange API
    • Referral Scheme
    • Bug Bounty
    • FAQ
      • Account Functions
      • Deposits & Withdrawals
      • Others
  • Academy
    • How To Buy Crypto
    • Learning Centre
    • Analysis Center
    • Crypto Glossary
  • Business
    • Coin Listing Request
    • Crypto Trader Application
    • Partnerships
  • Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • Service Agreement
    • Disclaimer
    • Compliance Notice
  • English
    • English
    • 中文 (台灣)
    • 中文 (中国)
  • Members
    • Login
    • Register
    • Activate
    • Add New Friends

© 2025 8V.com - 8V Crypto Academy - Empower your crypto journey! 8V.com