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By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Parikshit Mishra
Mar 27, 2025, 12:01 p.m. UTC
- A controversial $7 million bet on Polymarket, a prediction platform, over a potential Ukraine-U.S. mineral deal has caused a rift between Polymarket and UMA communities.
- The bet was resolved as ‘yes’ despite no official agreement, leading to suspicions of manipulation by a large UMA token holder, but Polymarket defended the UMA voting process.
- Polymarket acknowledged the premature resolution and is seeking community input for preventing similar issues, promising clearer rules and updates, though specifics are yet to be announced.
A contentious $7 million bet on prediction platform Polymarket has sparked disagreement between the Polymarket and UMA communities.
The bet, which speculated on whether Ukraine would agree to a mineral deal with U.S. President Donald Trump before April, saw its “yes” probability surge from 9% to 100% between March 24 and 25, despite no official agreement being reached.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Polymarket relies on UMA, an optimistic oracle system, to determine the outcomes of its prediction markets.
In this system, anyone can propose a resolution by staking a $750 USDC.e bond, which can then be challenged. If a dispute arises, UMA token holders vote to settle the matter.
In this case, the bet resolved as “yes,” leading many users to suspect manipulation by a “UMA whale” — a holder of a large number of UMA tokens capable of influencing the vote.
Polymarket responded via its Discord server, admitting the resolution was unexpected but denying it constituted a “market failure” that would warrant refunds.
It clarified that the market was resolved too soon, as no deal between Ukraine and the U.S. has been confirmed, yet it stood by the UMA voting process to correct the outcome.
Polymarket has since turned to its community for suggestions on preventing future issues, promising clearer rules and forthcoming updates, though it has yet to detail specific changes.
Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.
Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.
He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.
