Markus Thielen warns Bitcoin’s institutional rally could reverse as ETF outflows and market fatigue weigh on risk appetite.
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The powerful wave of institutional buying that helped propel Bitcoin higher since early 2024 could also amplify a correction if market fatigue persists, according to Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research and a former portfolio manager.
In an interview with , Thielen said the crypto market, and Bitcoin () in particular, is showing all the tell-tale signs of fatigue, following a difficult October marked by the . Those losses, he noted, have compounded underlying macroeconomic risks that Bitcoin has increasingly mirrored.
Because institutional inflows, especially from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have been a key driver of the 2024 rally, Thielen warned that the same investor base could accelerate downside pressure if activity continues to slow.
“At one point the risk manager may step in and say, ‘you need to eliminate or lighten your position’,” Thielen said. “There’s a risk that Bitcoin is going to continue to underperform because people need to rebalance their portfolios.”
The comments come as . Funds recorded a combined $939 million in withdrawals last week, according to data from CoinShares, reflecting waning appetite among institutional investors.
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In a surprising turn, so far this year — an unusual pattern in the calendar year following its most recent halving. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has lagged behind gold, technology stocks and even several Asian equity indexes since January, despite setting multiple record highs, including in early October.
Still, Thielen’s 10x Research isn’t outright bearish on Bitcoin. As , the company views shorting Ether () as a more effective hedge than betting against Bitcoin itself, which remains the preferred asset for institutional investors seeking exposure to cryptocurrency.
Much of Bitcoin’s recent weakness has been — large holders of the cryptocurrency — who have been taking profits above the $100,000 level. Citigroup’s Alex Saunders told Bloomberg that the number of wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC has been declining gradually in recent weeks.
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