Surge in XRP, Dogecoin Futures Bets Signals Speculative Froth

Speculative bets are piling into XRP and dogecoin (DOGE) futures even as spot prices show signs of losing momentum, signaling rising appetite for volatility and downside risk.

In the past week, DOGE futures open interest surged from $989 million to $1.62 billion, a 63.9% jump, according to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. DOGE is up nearly 40% in the past week and trades just over 23 cents on Wednesday.

“This decoupling suggests persistent speculative positioning, even as price momentum fades — a setup worth monitoring,” Glassnode noted in an X post late Tuesday.

A similar trend is playing out in XRP, where open interest rose by over $1 billion, or a 41.6% increase over the same period. Unlike DOGE, XRP has seen relatively lower spot gains, rising from around $2.14 to $2.6 in the past week.

Both cases indicate a broader uptick in derivatives-fueled speculation, particularly in high-beta assets. When open interest rises alongside (or in the absence of) price action, it often reflects traders positioning aggressively for upside.

However, this sets the stage for sharper liquidations if sentiment flips, leading to hundreds of millions wiped out in hours as a liquidation event earlier this week showed.

Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is widely used as a proxy for speculative activity. When paired with flat or fading price action, rising OI can signal that leverage is outpacing conviction — a pattern that has preceded flash crashes in the past.

Earlier this year, DOGE futures set record highs as some traders speculated on a $1 DOGE in 2025. That narrative has cooled, but the current surge in futures bets indicates that memecoin and XRP exposure remains high-risk, high-reward territory.