The four-year cycle would usually end about now, but strong ETF demand, “more organic” accumulation and bullish technicals suggest BTC price can go higher for longer.
Market Analysis
Key takeaways:
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Strong ETF inflows and accumulation across all BTC investor groups suggest the rally is just getting started.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.2 billion in net inflows over one week — the second-largest ever.
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A rare “cylinder” chart pattern suggests $450,000-$500,000 is in play this cycle.
Bitcoin () traded with high volatility on Thursday as uncertainty gripped the market ahead of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in Kansas City.
Macro triggers aside, however, onchain and technical metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s “supercycle” is just beginning, according to analysts.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide “durable tailwinds”
Bitcoin has displayed exceptional bullish momentum after recovering from lows around $108,000, rising more than 16% to s on Sunday.
was fueled by high investor appetite for spot (ETFs), which r last week, according to Glassnode data.
Related:
“Bitcoin’s breakout to new all-time highs near $126K has been underpinned by a sharp resurgence in US spot ETF Inflows,” the onchain data provider in its latest Week On-chain report, adding:
“This renewed institutional participation has absorbed available spot supply and strengthened overall market liquidity.”
These inflows mirror the period between Nov. 6, 2024, and Dec. 16, 2024, which attracted $5.7 billion, aligning with Bitcoin’s 60% rally from $67,000 to $108,000.
signal strong institutional demand, but seasonality is also contributing to the current bullishness.
Historically, , “often coinciding with renewed risk appetite and portfolio rebalancing,” Glassnode wrote, adding:
“Sustained ETF inflows through October and November could provide a durable tailwind, anchoring confidence and supporting prices into year-end.”
“More organic” Bitcoin accumulation
Reinforcing the risk-on appetite are Bitcoin whales, who have been increasing their holdings even as the price rallied. Glassnode the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is nearing 1 (see chart below), suggesting intense accumulation by large investors.
This indicator reflects the relative size of entities that are actively accumulating BTC onchain.
This shift mirrors a similar accumulation pattern observed in July, which aligned with Bitcoin’s rally to its , reached on Aug. 14, from sub-$100,000 levels in June.
Additionally, there is also a resurgence in buying by small to mid-sized entities holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC, which have accumulated consistently over the past few weeks.
Glassnode added:
“The alignment among mid-tier holders points to a more organic accumulation phase, adding structural depth and resilience to the ongoing rally.”
One Bitcoin price chart targets $500,000
Bitcoin price action has formed a relatively rare yet reliable pattern known as Jesse Livermore’s Accumulation Cylinder on the monthly time frame. This suggests the “unfolding” of the BTC supercycle, according to analyst Merlijn The Trader.
Jesse Livermore’s Accumulation Cylinder is a technical analysis concept in which an asset consolidates within a tight price range, forming a “cylinder” pattern that signals accumulation by strong hands before a breakout.
Merlijn The Trader that the BTC/USD pair is “now entering Stage 8, the vertical mania phase,” as shown in the chart below.
With the seventh phase of accumulation ending, Bitcoin may now track levels 8 and 9, which have price targets of around $450,000 and $500,000, respectively.
“Bitcoin’s supercycle is unfolding,” the analyst said.
Fellow analyst Bitcoinsensus highlighted that Bitcoin was repeating a similar Q4 setup seen in the past two years, where the BTC/USD pair broke out of a megaphone pattern, leading to a massive rally.
“Are we about to see another vertical leg?”
CYCLE REPEATING? Q4 setup loading… 🚀
📈 Q4 2023: Megaphone breakout led to massive rally
📊 Q4 2024: Falling wedge breakout = explosive move
🔍 Now in Q4 2025: Megaphone breakout + trendline support holding
Are we about to see another vertical leg?
— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus)
As , multiple factors suggest that Bitcoin still has room to run, with a cup-and-handle pattern projecting a .
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
