Cryptocurrency has come a long way. Once obscure, the technology now has a shot at being mentioned in Tuesday night’s U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
A long shot, but still a shot.
On Polymarket’s “What will Trump say at the debate?” contract, “yes” shares for “crypto/Bitcoin” were trading at 17 cents midday Tuesday in New York, indicating traders see a 17% chance he will say one or both words. Each share pays out $1 worth of cryptocurrency if the prediction turns out to be correct, and nothing if it is proven wrong.
Crypto trails behind hot-button issues the former commander-in-chief and Republican nominee is likelier to utter, such as “abortion” (the highest probability, at 83%) as well as Trumpian epithets like “Comrade Kamala” (40%).
Vice President Harris, meanwhile, has an even slimmer chance of mentioning bitcoin or crypto, at 13%. Once again, “abortion” is the leading contender for a mention from the Democratic candidate (an 87% probability), followed by the description of her opponent as a “convicted felon” (58%).
Trump has aggressively courted crypto voters and donations this year. Harris’ campaign has made overtures, although the vice president serves in an administration the industry considers hostile.
Prediction markets allow traders to bet money on the outcomes of everything from flu outbreaks and wars to Rotten Tomatoes scores. Detractors say they amount to little more than gambling, but proponents say prediction markets offer a superior source of forecasting to polls and pundits. Because the traders making predictions are putting money on the line, they have a powerful incentive to thoroughly research topics and voice their honest conclusions, not what other people want to hear, the argument goes.
Election betting has surged this year and Polymarket has captured most of the action despite a regulatory settlement that requires it to block users from the U.S. (though some traders could be using VPNs to disguise their locations). Friday was the platform’s biggest day ever, with $34 million in trading volume, according to Dune Analytics data.
On Manifold, a self-described “play money” prediction market, “bitcoin” ranks near the bottom of words or phrases likely to be said during Tuesday’s debate, with 12% odds, slightly ahead of “unburdened” (8%) and “coconut” (6%). Bets on this market are paid out in mana, a digital (not crypto) currency. New users get free mana when they sign up and can buy more, but they can’t cash it out; the main incentive to place bets on Manifold is to build a reputation as an accurate forecaster.
