Trump Odds on Polymarket Hit Another All-Time High After Vance VP Pick

Donald Trump’s odds of retaking the White House in November hit another all-time high after he picked Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, traders on the crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket are signaling.

“Yes” shares for Trump in Polymarket’s presidential election contract were trading at 72 cents mid-morning Tuesday New York time, indicating that the market believes the Republican nominee has a 72% chance of victory. Each share pays out $1 if the associated prediction comes true and bupkis if not. Bets are programmed into a smart contract, or software application, on the Polygon blockchain and denominated in USDC, a stablecoin, or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 for dollars.

Vance, 39, is the first millennial nominated to a major-party ticket, The New York Times noted, calling the pick a wager that he “will bring fresh energy to the Republican ticket.” He is also a staunch cryptocurrency supporter.

Trump announced his selection Monday, two days after the former president’s chances of victory reached the previous record of 70% when he survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania.

That harrowing incident turned into a win for the candidate, as iconic imagery of a bloodied but unbowed Trump circulated on the internet following a fortnight when the national conversation focused on the senescence of his opponent, incumbent President Joe Biden.

A total of $262 million has been staked on Polymarket’s presidential election contract, a record for crypto-based prediction markets, if not all prediction markets. The platform, founded four years ago, is riding high on enthusiasm for election betting, despite being closed off to the U.S. under a regulatory settlement.

PredictIt, an older election betting site that operates in the U.S. under a limited regulatory exemption and settles bets in old-fashioned greenbacks, has shown a similar trend. “Yes” shares for Trump there climbed to 69 cents from 60 cents before the Pennsylvania shooting.

In prediction markets, traders bet on the verifiable outcome of real-world events within defined time frames. Wagers can be about anything from the weather to elections to sporting events to celebrity romances.

Detractors call prediction markets a form of gambling, but proponents argue they have positive spillover effects for the public. The people making predictions are putting money on the line, so they are strongly incentivized to do meticulous research and express their honest opinions, making them arguably more reliable forecasters than pollsters or pundits.