Trump’s Lead Over Harris Widens on Polymarket’s Prediction Market

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the U.S. presidential election have surged to a more than two-month high on the leading prediction market, Polymarket.

Traders are giving the former president a 55.8% shot versus Vice President Kamala Harris’ 43.8%, according to pricing on Polymarket, where more than $1.6 billion has been wagered on the November election.

Trump’s chances have risen to levels last seen days after President Joe Biden said he wouldn’t seek reelection, clearing the way for his vice president to take over.

Another prediction market, Kalshi, which just recently won permission to list contracts based on U.S. elections, also shows Trump in the lead over Harris: 52% to 48%. PredictIt, meanwhile, shows a slimmer Trump lead: 53% to 52%.

Polymarket is not technically available to Americans, though VPN users likely sidestep that restriction. Kalshi and PredictIt are allowed in the U.S., however.