Jobs data for September was far stronger than expected.
The chances for a 50 basis point rate cut in November all but vanished.
Already down on the week, the price of bitcoin is holding up following the data, with one analyst suggesting the risk of a sharp economic downturn has been removed from the market.
The employment picture in the U.S. heated up in September, with the government reporting the addition of 254,000 jobs last month, flying past economist estimates for just 140,000. In addition, August’s previously reported 142,000 job gain was revised higher to 159,000.
The unemployment rate slid to 4.1% from 4.2% in August and versus forecasts for 4.2%.
Bitcoin (BTC) was changing hands at $61,500 in volatile action shortly following the release of the report, up nearly 1.5% over the past 24 hours. Prices remain sharply lower from week-ago levels above $66,000 as an overbought market over the past five days got hit with some unwelcome macro news, including an escalation of the war in the Middle East.
“A robust U.S. economy reduces uncertainty, particularly with the upcoming U.S. election, and this bodes well for bitcoin, removing one of the key risks looming over the market,” said CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten.
Checking other report details, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in September, beating forecasts for 0.3% and down from 0.5% a month earlier. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were higher by 4.0% versus estimates for 3.8% and August’s 3.9%.
Recent economic data – including yesterday’s ISM Services report and Wednesday’s ADP jobs data, both of which came in far stronger than expected – along with comments earlier this week from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led traders to pare back expectations for a second consecutive Fed 50 basis point rate cut at the bank’s next policy meeting just after the November elections.
Prior to this morning’s numbers, short-term rate markets had priced only a 30% chance of a 50 basis point move and a 70% chance of just a 25 basis point cut, according to CME FedWatch. In the minutes after the data, those 50 basis point odds had tumbled to just 11%.
Looking at traditional markets following the strong report, U.S. stock index futures have added to gains, with the Nasdaq 100 now higher by 0.8%. The U.S. 10-year yield has shot higher by eight basis points to 3.94% and the dollar index has jumped by a sizable 0.5%. The price of gold has dipped 0.5% to $2,665 per ounce.
