Bitcoin at $100K No Longer a Dream Believe Traders, but Blow-Off Top Warning in Near Term

Bitcoin (BTC) reaching the mythical $100,000 figure seemed a lofty target as recently as a few months ago, as the asset spent months in a narrow range under $65,000. But the promise of swiftly changing U.S. regulations has revived the dream.

“Predictions of BTC at 100K aren’t a pipedream anymore as the political and institutional stars start to align,” traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital said in a Telegram broadcast Tuesday. “Despite having net ETF outflows last Thursday and Friday, BTC still looks relatively well supported and institutional adoption remains strong.”

The bull run has led to notable bitcoin backers MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet announcing fresh BTC purchases on Monday, with the former now holding 1.5% of the asset’s total supply.

QCP expect a run to $100,000 — nearly 10% higher than the current record of over $93,000 — in the coming months, with those gains flowing into altcoins in a mark of a general “alt season.”

“BTC’s dominance is around 60% now and will probably need to be under 58% to signal the start of altcoin season. We anticipate pro-crypto policies from the Trump administration and more rate cuts. We won’t be surprised to see altcoin season in full swing in the coming months,” QCP said.

Banks and traditional finance analysts have issued targets as high as $200,000 after Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the November elections.

A retail sentiment by U.S. bank JPMorgan rose to a record high of 4 earlier this week, indicative of renewed demand from smaller professional investors. The measure is designed to gauge the sentiment of retail investors toward cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, based on the activity in the family of BTC products, including spot ETFs.

However, not all are bright and optimistic, as near-term concerns remain.

“We feel that the ‘easy’ part of the rally has been done and the next stage will be much trickier with more price choppiness and potential for drawdowns,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “Bitcoin dominance remains on a one-way trend higher reminiscent of the mega-cap dominance in SPX, and is not particularly desirable for this stage of the crypto ecosystem.”

“We’ll be looking for a potential blow-off top in the near term with market sentiment at highly frothy levels,” Fan added.

A blow-off top is a chart pattern recognized in technical analysis that indicates a rapid and steep increase in the price of an asset, followed by an equally rapid decline.

In case of a blow off top, the former record high of around $69,000 could be tested again, with a classic bear market wick potentially extending up to lower $60,000, said CoinDesk’s senior markets analyst Omkar Godbole.

Maksym Sakharov, co-founder of WeFi, mirrors the sentiment. “The upside volatility in the price of Bitcoin has slowed down since it crossed the $90,000 ATH range. The fact that the US Federal Reserve is no longer in a rush to cut interest rates moving forward has further forced investors to re-evaluate their bets on Bitcoin,” Sakharov said.

“Should the Fed continue to adopt a mildly hawkish stance toward the rate, the attractiveness of Bitcoin may decrease,” Sakharov added.